Fresh odds moves, new highs and lows, trends, lead changes, polling, fundraising, endorsements, and news across active elections.
CA-40 primary: first place
Young Kim’s chance to place first in the CA-40 primary has dropped sharply from 99% to 2%, while fresh election-night reporting now frames Ken Calvert as the race’s advancing Republican contender.
MA-08 Democratic nominee?
Stephen Lynch is now at 55%, with a 5.0-point lead in the MA-08 Democratic nominee race.
MA-08 Democratic nominee?
Stephen Lynch is now at 55%, with a 5.0-point lead in the MA-08 Democratic nominee race.
Los Angeles mayoral election: first round winner
Donald Trump backed Spencer Pratt, who is at 21% in the Los Angeles mayoral election: first round winner.
Los Angeles mayoral election: first round winner
Donald Trump backed Spencer Pratt, who is at 21% in the Los Angeles mayoral election: first round winner.
Los Angeles Mayor winner?
Donald Trump backed Spencer Pratt for Los Angeles mayor, and Pratt is currently at 27%.
Los Angeles Mayor winner?
Donald Trump backed Spencer Pratt for Los Angeles mayor, and Pratt is currently at 27%.
Alabama Republican Senate nominee?
Hudson is ahead by 22.3 points in the latest poll, but Barry Moore leads the odds with Hudson at 34%.
Alabama Republican Senate nominee?
Hudson is ahead by 22.3 points in the latest poll, but Barry Moore leads the odds with Hudson at 34%.
NY-12 Democratic nominee?
The latest poll has Alex Bores ahead by 9.1 points, but Micah Lasher is still the odds leader.
NY-12 Democratic nominee?
The latest poll has Alex Bores ahead by 9.1 points, but Micah Lasher is still the odds leader.
Georgia Republican Governor nominee?
Rick Jackson is up 15.0 points in the latest poll, but Burt Jones leads the odds for the Georgia Republican governor nomination.
Georgia Republican Governor nominee?
Rick Jackson is up 15.0 points in the latest poll, but Burt Jones leads the odds for the Georgia Republican governor nomination.
Michigan Republican Governor nominee?
The latest poll has Perry Johnson ahead by 16.0 points, but John James is still the odds leader.
Michigan Republican Governor nominee?
The latest poll has Perry Johnson ahead by 16.0 points, but John James is still the odds leader.
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Claim nowCA-40 primary: first place
Young Kim’s chance to place first in the CA-40 primary has dropped sharply from 99% to 2%, while fresh election-night reporting now frames Ken Calvert as the race’s advancing Republican contender.
MA-08 Democratic nominee?
Stephen Lynch is now at 55%, with a 5.0-point lead in the MA-08 Democratic nominee race.
Stephen Lynch is now at 55%, with a 5.0-point lead in the MA-08 Democratic nominee race.
Los Angeles mayoral election: first round winner
Donald Trump backed Spencer Pratt, who is at 21% in the Los Angeles mayoral election: first round winner.
Donald Trump backed Spencer Pratt, who is at 21% in the Los Angeles mayoral election: first round winner.
Los Angeles Mayor winner?
Donald Trump backed Spencer Pratt for Los Angeles mayor, and Pratt is currently at 27%.
Donald Trump backed Spencer Pratt for Los Angeles mayor, and Pratt is currently at 27%.
Alabama Republican Senate nominee?
Hudson is ahead by 22.3 points in the latest poll, but Barry Moore leads the odds with Hudson at 34%.
Hudson is ahead by 22.3 points in the latest poll, but Barry Moore leads the odds with Hudson at 34%.
NY-12 Democratic nominee?
The latest poll has Alex Bores ahead by 9.1 points, but Micah Lasher is still the odds leader.
The latest poll has Alex Bores ahead by 9.1 points, but Micah Lasher is still the odds leader.
Georgia Republican Governor nominee?
Rick Jackson is up 15.0 points in the latest poll, but Burt Jones leads the odds for the Georgia Republican governor nomination.
Rick Jackson is up 15.0 points in the latest poll, but Burt Jones leads the odds for the Georgia Republican governor nomination.
Michigan Republican Governor nominee?
The latest poll has Perry Johnson ahead by 16.0 points, but John James is still the odds leader.
The latest poll has Perry Johnson ahead by 16.0 points, but John James is still the odds leader.
AZ-01 Republican nominee?
The latest poll has Joseph Chaplik ahead by 0.2 points, but Jay Feely is the odds leader.
The latest poll has Joseph Chaplik ahead by 0.2 points, but Jay Feely is the odds leader.
FL-25 Democratic nominee?
The latest poll has Jared Moskowitz ahead by 22 points, but Oliver Larkin is leading the odds for the Democratic nominee race.
The latest poll has Jared Moskowitz ahead by 22 points, but Oliver Larkin is leading the odds for the Democratic nominee race.
Georgia Republican Senate nominee?
Mike Collins is ahead by 10.1 points in the latest poll, but Derek Dooley leads the odds by 11 points.
Mike Collins is ahead by 10.1 points in the latest poll, but Derek Dooley leads the odds by 11 points.
South Carolina Republican Governor nominee?
Pamela Evette advanced to a June 23 runoff for the South Carolina GOP governor nomination, keeping her odds elevated in a market that is already pricing her as the clear favorite.
Pamela Evette advanced to a June 23 runoff for the South Carolina GOP governor nomination, keeping her odds elevated in a market that is already pricing her as the clear favorite.
NY-13 Democratic nominee?
Adriano Espaillat’s market probability jumped to 45% while Darializa Avila Chevalier remains the slight favorite, keeping this primary highly volatile ahead of the June 23 vote.
Adriano Espaillat’s market probability jumped to 45% while Darializa Avila Chevalier remains the slight favorite, keeping this primary highly volatile ahead of the June 23 vote.
Ohio Governor winner?
A new Axios report says the pro-Ramaswamy PAC is launching a $25 million summer ad buy, giving the Republican side a fresh, concrete catalyst as the Ohio governor market moves up to 55%.
A new Axios report says the pro-Ramaswamy PAC is launching a $25 million summer ad buy, giving the Republican side a fresh, concrete catalyst as the Ohio governor market moves up to 55%.
DE-AL Republican nominee?
Lee Murphy's odds reached 70%, topping the previous high of 41%.
Lee Murphy's odds reached 70%, topping the previous high of 41%.
FL-19 Republican nominee?
Jim Schwartzel's odds reached 91%, topping the previous high of 75%.
Jim Schwartzel's odds reached 91%, topping the previous high of 75%.
California Lieutenant Governor winner?
Fiona Ma's odds reached 92%, topping the previous high of 75% in "California Lieutenant Governor winner?"
CO-03 Democratic nominee?
That tops his previous high of 37% in the CO-03 Democratic nominee race.
That tops his previous high of 37% in the CO-03 Democratic nominee race.
FL-05 Republican nominee?
John Rutherford is now at 92% and leads by 88.0 points in the FL-05 Republican nominee race.
John Rutherford is now at 92% and leads by 88.0 points in the FL-05 Republican nominee race.
CA-06 House winner?
Donald Trump backed Kevin Kiley, who is at 4% in "CA-06 House winner?"
Donald Trump backed Kevin Kiley, who is at 4% in "CA-06 House winner?"
South Carolina Republican Governor nominee?
Donald Trump backed Pamela Evette, and she is currently at 75% in "South Carolina Republican Governor nominee?"
Donald Trump backed Pamela Evette, and she is currently at 75% in "South Carolina Republican Governor nominee?"
NY-17 Democratic nominee?
Peter Chatzky has raised $11,640,655.60 this cycle, but Cait Conley holds the lead in the latest odds for "NY-17 Democratic nominee?"
Peter Chatzky has raised $11,640,655.60 this cycle, but Cait Conley holds the lead in the latest odds for "NY-17 Democratic nominee?"
South Carolina Republican Governor primary: 2nd place (1st round)
Pamela Evette now has Donald Trump’s backing in the South Carolina Republican governor primary, where she is listed at 20%.
Pamela Evette now has Donald Trump’s backing in the South Carolina Republican governor primary, where she is listed at 20%.
Georgia Republican Senate nominee?
Derek Dooley has raised $4,175,480.91 this cycle, but Mike Collins holds the odds lead for the Georgia Republican Senate nominee race.
Derek Dooley has raised $4,175,480.91 this cycle, but Mike Collins holds the odds lead for the Georgia Republican Senate nominee race.
2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
Jon Ossoff has raised $60,439,612.91 this cycle, but Marco Rubio holds the lead in the latest odds for "2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?"
Jon Ossoff has raised $60,439,612.91 this cycle, but Marco Rubio holds the lead in the latest odds for "2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?"
Los Angeles City Council District 1 winner
Fresh post-election reporting says Eunisses Hernandez reelected outright in Los Angeles City Council District 1, confirming the market’s heavy favorite and reducing near-term uncertainty for the contract.
Fresh post-election reporting says Eunisses Hernandez reelected outright in Los Angeles City Council District 1, confirming the market’s heavy favorite and reducing near-term uncertainty for the contract.
Oklahoma Republican Governor nominee?
Mike Mazzei remains the heavy favorite in the Oklahoma GOP governor nominee market even after fresh reporting on Trump’s May 29 endorsement, keeping the race’s repricing centered on the Mazzei-vs.-Keating split ahead of the June 16 primary.
Mike Mazzei remains the heavy favorite in the Oklahoma GOP governor nominee market even after fresh reporting on Trump’s May 29 endorsement, keeping the race’s repricing centered on the Mazzei-vs.-Keating split ahead of the June 16 primary.
CA-40 House winner?
That’s below the previous low of 23%, setting a fresh floor for the Democratic Party in "CA-40 House winner?"
That’s below the previous low of 23%, setting a fresh floor for the Democratic Party in "CA-40 House winner?"
California governor primary: 3rd place
Tom Steyer's odds in California governor primary: 3rd place are now 97%, above the previous high of 66%.
Tom Steyer's odds in California governor primary: 3rd place are now 97%, above the previous high of 66%.
AZ-01 Republican nominee?
That’s a fresh high for Joseph Chaplik in the Arizona-01 Republican nominee race, topping his previous high of 12%.
That’s a fresh high for Joseph Chaplik in the Arizona-01 Republican nominee race, topping his previous high of 12%.
CA-50 primary: first place
Scott Peters is now the leader in the CA-50 primary with 99% odds and a 98-point lead.
Scott Peters is now the leader in the CA-50 primary with 99% odds and a 98-point lead.
Minnesota Republican Governor nominee?
Donald Trump backed Mike Lindell for Minnesota Republican governor nominee, and Lindell is currently at 12%.
Donald Trump backed Mike Lindell for Minnesota Republican governor nominee, and Lindell is currently at 12%.
Who will win the next Senate Democratic Leader election?
Jon Ossoff has raised $60,439,612.91 this cycle, while Chuck Schumer leads the latest odds for the Senate Democratic Leader election.
Jon Ossoff has raised $60,439,612.91 this cycle, while Chuck Schumer leads the latest odds for the Senate Democratic Leader election.
2028 Democratic presidential nominee
Jon Ossoff has raised $60,439,612.91 this cycle, but Gavin Newsom holds the odds lead for the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee.
Jon Ossoff has raised $60,439,612.91 this cycle, but Gavin Newsom holds the odds lead for the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee.
Michigan Democratic Senate nominee?
Fresh AP coverage of the May 28 Michigan Democratic Senate debate keeps El-Sayed in the spotlight, and his contract is still repricing near a 71% win probability. That matters because the race remains active enough for traders to monitor whether debate-driven attention extends his lead or narrows it again.
Fresh AP coverage of the May 28 Michigan Democratic Senate debate keeps El-Sayed in the spotlight, and his contract is still repricing near a 71% win probability. That matters because the race remains active enough for traders to monitor whether debate-driven attention extends his lead or narrows it again.
Maine Senate winner?
Fresh AP and local reporting on new abuse allegations keeps Graham Platner under intense scrutiny days before Tuesday’s Democratic primary, reinforcing the recent Democratic-side selloff in Maine Senate markets.
Fresh AP and local reporting on new abuse allegations keeps Graham Platner under intense scrutiny days before Tuesday’s Democratic primary, reinforcing the recent Democratic-side selloff in Maine Senate markets.
Los Angeles Mayor winner?
Fresh vote counts and press coverage show Nithya Raman has overtaken Spencer Pratt for second place, forcing traders to reprice the runoff matchup against Karen Bass.
Fresh vote counts and press coverage show Nithya Raman has overtaken Spencer Pratt for second place, forcing traders to reprice the runoff matchup against Karen Bass.
Maine Senate winner?
New reporting on additional allegations against Graham Platner keeps Maine’s Democratic Senate primary under heavy scrutiny and could sustain volatility in the race as Tuesday’s vote approaches.
New reporting on additional allegations against Graham Platner keeps Maine’s Democratic Senate primary under heavy scrutiny and could sustain volatility in the race as Tuesday’s vote approaches.
California Governor winner?
Steyer’s contract has fallen to about 2% as fresh reporting shows Becerra and Hilton advancing in the California governor primary, keeping Steyer out of the top-two runoff fight and forcing a major repricing.
Steyer’s contract has fallen to about 2% as fresh reporting shows Becerra and Hilton advancing in the California governor primary, keeping Steyer out of the top-two runoff fight and forcing a major repricing.
CA-40 House winner?
Republican Party's odds are now 96%, above the previous high of 78%.
Republican Party's odds are now 96%, above the previous high of 78%.
FL-14 Republican nominee?
Michael Marcel is now leading with 63% odds and has a 15.0-point edge over the prior leader in the FL-14 Republican nominee race.
Michael Marcel is now leading with 63% odds and has a 15.0-point edge over the prior leader in the FL-14 Republican nominee race.
CO-03 Republican nominee?
Donald Trump backed Hope Scheppelman in the "CO-03 Republican nominee?" race, and her current odds are 7%.
Donald Trump backed Hope Scheppelman in the "CO-03 Republican nominee?" race, and her current odds are 7%.
California Governor winner?
Becerra’s contract is now around 84%, with post-primary reporting showing him ahead while Steyer falls further behind, making the front-runner trade more expensive and the Steyer long less attractive.
Becerra’s contract is now around 84%, with post-primary reporting showing him ahead while Steyer falls further behind, making the front-runner trade more expensive and the Steyer long less attractive.
FL-19 Republican nominee?
Jim Schwartzel is now at 90.6% and leads by 32.6 points in the FL-19 Republican nominee race.
Jim Schwartzel is now at 90.6% and leads by 32.6 points in the FL-19 Republican nominee race.
2028 Republican presidential nominee
Donald Trump backed Thomas Massie, who is at 3% for the 2028 Republican presidential nominee.
Donald Trump backed Thomas Massie, who is at 3% for the 2028 Republican presidential nominee.
FL-19 Republican nominee?
Jim Oberweis has raised $4,360,995.58 this cycle, while Jim Schwartzel holds the lead in the latest odds for the Florida 19th District Republican nominee race.
Jim Oberweis has raised $4,360,995.58 this cycle, while Jim Schwartzel holds the lead in the latest odds for the Florida 19th District Republican nominee race.
Los Angeles Mayor winner?
Pratt’s win contract has fallen to 6.4% even as Bass secured a runoff spot and the race narrows to Pratt vs. Nithya Raman for second place, which materially changes the path to the November ballot.
Pratt’s win contract has fallen to 6.4% even as Bass secured a runoff spot and the race narrows to Pratt vs. Nithya Raman for second place, which materially changes the path to the November ballot.
Who will win the 2026 DC Democratic Mayoral Primary?
Janeese Lewis George's odds are now 91%, above the previous high of 75%.
Janeese Lewis George's odds are now 91%, above the previous high of 75%.
NV-02 Republican nominee?
Donald Trump backed David Flippo for "NV-02 Republican nominee?"; Flippo is currently at 58%.
Donald Trump backed David Flippo for "NV-02 Republican nominee?"; Flippo is currently at 58%.
Alabama Republican Senate nominee?
Donald Trump backed Barry Moore, who is currently at 71% in "Alabama Republican Senate nominee?"
Donald Trump backed Barry Moore, who is currently at 71% in "Alabama Republican Senate nominee?"
FL-23 House winner?
Democratic Party's odds are now 81%, past the previous high of 66%.
Democratic Party's odds are now 81%, past the previous high of 66%.
South Dakota Republican Governor nominee?
Toby Doeden is now confirmed to advance to a July runoff against Larry Rhoden, keeping the nomination fight live and forcing traders to reprice a two-candidate finish rather than a single-round result.
Toby Doeden is now confirmed to advance to a July runoff against Larry Rhoden, keeping the nomination fight live and forcing traders to reprice a two-candidate finish rather than a single-round result.
California Governor primary: 1st place
Latest reporting shows Steve Hilton and Xavier Becerra still leading the California governor primary, reinforcing the market’s frontrunner structure even as votes remain uncounted.
California Governor primary: 1st place
Latest reporting shows Steve Hilton and Xavier Becerra still leading the California governor primary, reinforcing the market’s frontrunner structure even as votes remain uncounted.
CA-30 primary: first place
Laura Friedman is now at 99% and leads by 98.0 points in the CA-30 primary: first place.
Laura Friedman is now at 99% and leads by 98.0 points in the CA-30 primary: first place.
CA-23 primary: first place
Jay Obernolte is now leading the CA-23 primary: first place with 99% odds and a 0.9-point lead.
Jay Obernolte is now leading the CA-23 primary: first place with 99% odds and a 0.9-point lead.
CA-33 primary: first place
Pete Aguilar is now at 99% and leads by 90.0 points in the CA-33 primary: first place.
Pete Aguilar is now at 99% and leads by 90.0 points in the CA-33 primary: first place.
AZ-05 Republican nominee?
Daniel Keenan is now the front-runner at 60%, with a 17.0-point lead over the prior leader.
Daniel Keenan is now the front-runner at 60%, with a 17.0-point lead over the prior leader.
Providence Mayor winner?
Providence Teachers Union endorsed David Morales over Brett Smiley, and Morales’ win price has risen to 57% with heavy 24-hour volume, making the endorsement a timely signal for traders watching the race repricing.
Providence Teachers Union endorsed David Morales over Brett Smiley, and Morales’ win price has risen to 57% with heavy 24-hour volume, making the endorsement a timely signal for traders watching the race repricing.
SC-01 Republican nominee?
McCown’s contract moved sharply off a near-zero base into the mid-single digits ahead of the June 9 primary, making him a more tradable fringe contender in a crowded field.
McCown’s contract moved sharply off a near-zero base into the mid-single digits ahead of the June 9 primary, making him a more tradable fringe contender in a crowded field.
MD-08 Republican nominee?
Riley’s contract is now around 90% while Anita Cox and Michael Yadeta sit near 2%, keeping the market heavily concentrated on Riley with the June 23 primary approaching.
Riley’s contract is now around 90% while Anita Cox and Michael Yadeta sit near 2%, keeping the market heavily concentrated on Riley with the June 23 primary approaching.
Los Angeles mayoral election: first round winner
Fresh AP and LA Times reporting shows Karen Bass moving into the November runoff, which confirms the market’s front-runner framing even as Spencer Pratt and Nithya Raman remain live for second place.
Los Angeles mayoral election: first round winner
Fresh AP and LA Times reporting shows Karen Bass moving into the November runoff, which confirms the market’s front-runner framing even as Spencer Pratt and Nithya Raman remain live for second place.
FL-02 Democratic nominee?
Brice Barnes's odds reached 39%, topping the previous high of 9% over the past 13 days.
Brice Barnes's odds reached 39%, topping the previous high of 9% over the past 13 days.
CA-01 primary: first place
His odds are now 97%, above the previous high of 86%.
His odds are now 97%, above the previous high of 86%.
California Lieutenant Governor winner?
Josh Fryday's odds fell below the previous low of 15%, setting a new floor for "California Lieutenant Governor winner?"
Josh Fryday's odds fell below the previous low of 15%, setting a new floor for "California Lieutenant Governor winner?"
California Governor primary: 1st place
Xavier Becerra's odds are now 90%, above the previous high of 78%.
Xavier Becerra's odds are now 90%, above the previous high of 78%.
CA-40 primary: first place
Ken Calvert is now leading with 94% odds in the CA-40 primary: first place, after overtaking Y. Kim.
Ken Calvert is now leading with 94% odds in the CA-40 primary: first place, after overtaking Y. Kim.
California State Senate District 26 election winner
Sara Hernandez is now at 87% and leads by 41.0 points after trailing earlier.
Sara Hernandez is now at 87% and leads by 41.0 points after trailing earlier.
MD-03 Republican nominee?
Felix Seier is now the Republican front-runner in "MD-03 Republican nominee?" with 20% odds, after overtaking the previous leader.
Felix Seier is now the Republican front-runner in "MD-03 Republican nominee?" with 20% odds, after overtaking the previous leader.
Iowa Senate winner? (Person)
Donald Trump backed Ashley Hinson, who is at 56% for Iowa Senate winner? (Person).
Donald Trump backed Ashley Hinson, who is at 56% for Iowa Senate winner? (Person).
CA-13 primary: first place
Kevin Lincoln now has Donald Trump’s backing in the CA-13 primary, and his current odds are 8%.
Kevin Lincoln now has Donald Trump’s backing in the CA-13 primary, and his current odds are 8%.
Georgia Republican Governor nominee?
Donald Trump backed Burt Jones for Georgia governor, and Jones is at 76% in "Georgia Republican Governor nominee?"
Donald Trump backed Burt Jones for Georgia governor, and Jones is at 76% in "Georgia Republican Governor nominee?"
Wisconsin Republican Governor nominee?
Donald Trump backed Bryan Steil in the Wisconsin Republican Governor nominee race, and Steil is currently at 4%.
Donald Trump backed Bryan Steil in the Wisconsin Republican Governor nominee race, and Steil is currently at 4%.
Georgia Republican Secretary of State nominee?
Donald Trump backed Vernon Jones, who is at 10% in "Georgia Republican Secretary of State nominee?"
Donald Trump backed Vernon Jones, who is at 10% in "Georgia Republican Secretary of State nominee?"
Maine Democratic Governor nominee?
The latest poll has Hannah Pingree at 52%, up 26.0 points over the next candidate, even though her odds are still at 20%.
The latest poll has Hannah Pingree at 52%, up 26.0 points over the next candidate, even though her odds are still at 20%.
CO-01 Democratic nominee?
Fresh reporting still shows Kiros as the main challenger in a live primary, but her contract has fallen from 54% to 41% in the last hour, making the recent repricing worth monitoring for traders.
Fresh reporting still shows Kiros as the main challenger in a live primary, but her contract has fallen from 54% to 41% in the last hour, making the recent repricing worth monitoring for traders.
Wisconsin Democratic Governor nominee?
Hong’s contract is up to 45% after a sharp 1-day climb, and fresh reporting still describes a crowded Democratic field with Hong among the leading contenders. That makes her one of the main prices to watch as the primary approaches.
Hong’s contract is up to 45% after a sharp 1-day climb, and fresh reporting still describes a crowded Democratic field with Hong among the leading contenders. That makes her one of the main prices to watch as the primary approaches.
Minnesota Republican Governor nominee?
Kendall Qualls won the Minnesota Republican endorsement over Lisa Demuth, and his nominee odds jumped sharply as the market resets around the convention outcome.
Kendall Qualls won the Minnesota Republican endorsement over Lisa Demuth, and his nominee odds jumped sharply as the market resets around the convention outcome.
California Governor primary: 1st place
Xavier Becerra’s win price moved higher into the final hours before California’s June 2 primary, reinforcing his frontrunner status as fresh reporting still shows him leading the field.
Xavier Becerra’s win price moved higher into the final hours before California’s June 2 primary, reinforcing his frontrunner status as fresh reporting still shows him leading the field.
NC-11 House winner?
This is a fresh high for Democratic Party in "NC-11 House winner?", topping the previous high of 59%.
This is a fresh high for Democratic Party in "NC-11 House winner?", topping the previous high of 59%.
Maine Democratic Governor nominee?
That tops Troy Jackson's previous high of 46% in the Maine Democratic Governor nominee race.
That tops Troy Jackson's previous high of 46% in the Maine Democratic Governor nominee race.
CO-02 Republican nominee?
Kelley Dennison's odds are now 78%, past the previous high of 0%.
Kelley Dennison's odds are now 78%, past the previous high of 0%.
FL-02 Republican nominee?
Luke Murphy is now at 45% and has moved ahead of the prior leader in the Florida 2nd District Republican nominee race.
Luke Murphy is now at 45% and has moved ahead of the prior leader in the Florida 2nd District Republican nominee race.
VA-10 Republican nominee?
Julie Perry is now leading the VA-10 Republican nominee race with 34% and an 8.0-point edge.
Julie Perry is now leading the VA-10 Republican nominee race with 34% and an 8.0-point edge.
CA-37 primary: first place
Sydney Kamlager-Dove is now the leader in the CA-37 primary: first place and is at 98%, with a 97-point lead.
Sydney Kamlager-Dove is now the leader in the CA-37 primary: first place and is at 98%, with a 97-point lead.
Maine Republican Governor nominee?
Charles’s nomination price has climbed to 81%, extending an already dominant lead ahead of Maine’s June 9 Republican primary and keeping him the clear market favorite.
Charles’s nomination price has climbed to 81%, extending an already dominant lead ahead of Maine’s June 9 Republican primary and keeping him the clear market favorite.
Massachusetts Democratic Senate nominee?
Seth Moulton’s chance of winning the Massachusetts Democratic Senate nomination has risen sharply to 31% after he secured enough delegate support to appear on the primary ballot, keeping the primary race tighter than it looked a week ago.
Seth Moulton’s chance of winning the Massachusetts Democratic Senate nomination has risen sharply to 31% after he secured enough delegate support to appear on the primary ballot, keeping the primary race tighter than it looked a week ago.
FL-02 Republican nominee?
Austin Rogers's odds reached 24%, topping the previous high of 12% over the past 13 days.
Austin Rogers's odds reached 24%, topping the previous high of 12% over the past 13 days.
WY-AL Republican nominee?
Frank Chapman is now leading with 81% odds and is ahead by 38.0 points.
Frank Chapman is now leading with 81% odds and is ahead by 38.0 points.
FL-23 Republican nominee?
Darlene Cerezo Swaffar is now at 48% and leads by 19.0 points in "FL-23 Republican nominee?"
Darlene Cerezo Swaffar is now at 48% and leads by 19.0 points in "FL-23 Republican nominee?"
South Dakota Republican Governor nominee?
Toby Doeden is now at 52% and leads by 19.0 points in the South Dakota Republican governor nomination race.
Toby Doeden is now at 52% and leads by 19.0 points in the South Dakota Republican governor nomination race.
FL-02 Republican nominee?
Keith Gross has raised $5,680,863 this cycle, but Luke Murphy leads the latest odds by 19 points.
Keith Gross has raised $5,680,863 this cycle, but Luke Murphy leads the latest odds by 19 points.
Providence Mayor winner?
Brett Smiley is at 53% in "Providence Mayor winner?" after a 19-point drop over the last 3 days.
Brett Smiley is at 53% in "Providence Mayor winner?" after a 19-point drop over the last 3 days.
Minnesota Democratic Senate nominee?
Ilhan Omar has raised $5,090,952.62 this cycle, but Peggy Flanagan holds the lead in the latest odds for the Minnesota Democratic Senate nominee race.
Ilhan Omar has raised $5,090,952.62 this cycle, but Peggy Flanagan holds the lead in the latest odds for the Minnesota Democratic Senate nominee race.
ME-02 Democratic nominee?
Jordan Wood has raised $5,707,696 this cycle, but Joe Baldacci holds the lead in the latest odds for "ME-02 Democratic nominee?"
Jordan Wood has raised $5,707,696 this cycle, but Joe Baldacci holds the lead in the latest odds for "ME-02 Democratic nominee?"
California Governor primary: 1st place
Xavier Becerra's odds are up 26.0 points and are now at 72% in California Governor primary: 1st place over a 3-day streak.
Xavier Becerra's odds are up 26.0 points and are now at 72% in California Governor primary: 1st place over a 3-day streak.
Minnesota Republican Governor nominee?
Lisa Demuth is now the front-runner at 63%, with a 35.0-point lead over the prior leader.
Lisa Demuth is now the front-runner at 63%, with a 35.0-point lead over the prior leader.
Michigan Democratic Senate nominee?
Mallory McMorrow has raised $8,624,066 this cycle, but Abdul El-Sayed leads the latest odds for the Michigan Democratic Senate nominee race.
Mallory McMorrow has raised $8,624,066 this cycle, but Abdul El-Sayed leads the latest odds for the Michigan Democratic Senate nominee race.
New York Democratic Governor nominee?
Tom Suozzi has raised $4,110,037.41 this cycle, while Kathy Hochul holds the lead in odds for the New York Democratic Governor nominee race.
Tom Suozzi has raised $4,110,037.41 this cycle, while Kathy Hochul holds the lead in odds for the New York Democratic Governor nominee race.
California Governor primary: 1st place
Steve Hilton is at 20% in the latest poll, while Xavier Becerra is ahead in the odds for California Governor primary: 1st place.
Steve Hilton is at 20% in the latest poll, while Xavier Becerra is ahead in the odds for California Governor primary: 1st place.
California governor primary: 3rd place
Steve Hilton is polling at 20% in the latest poll, but Tom Steyer leads the odds for California governor.
Steve Hilton is polling at 20% in the latest poll, but Tom Steyer leads the odds for California governor.
CA-27 primary: first place
George Whitesides is now at 77% and leads by 57.0 points in the CA-27 primary: first place.
George Whitesides is now at 77% and leads by 57.0 points in the CA-27 primary: first place.
CA-40 primary: first place
Ken Calvert has raised $5,714,801.89 this cycle, while Young Kim holds the lead in the latest odds for CA-40.
Ken Calvert has raised $5,714,801.89 this cycle, while Young Kim holds the lead in the latest odds for CA-40.
NY-13 Democratic nominee?
Zohran Mamdani’s formal endorsement adds a fresh, high-profile boost to Darializa Avila Chevalier in a race where she already leads the market, keeping pressure on Adriano Espaillat’s repricing.
Zohran Mamdani’s formal endorsement adds a fresh, high-profile boost to Darializa Avila Chevalier in a race where she already leads the market, keeping pressure on Adriano Espaillat’s repricing.
AZ-05 Republican nominee?
New coverage of misconduct allegations and Lamb’s refusal to join a candidate forum adds another public headwind to a race where his nominee odds have already been sliding, making the current repricing more actionable for traders.
FL-20 Democratic nominee?
Fresh reporting shows Broward Black Democrats and FL-20 candidates openly urging Debbie Wasserman Schultz to stay out of the district, reinforcing the market’s front-runner despite growing local resistance.
Fresh reporting shows Broward Black Democrats and FL-20 candidates openly urging Debbie Wasserman Schultz to stay out of the district, reinforcing the market’s front-runner despite growing local resistance.
Oklahoma Republican Governor nominee?
Donald Trump backed Mike Mazzei for the Oklahoma Republican governor nomination, and Mazzei is currently at 21%.
Donald Trump backed Mike Mazzei for the Oklahoma Republican governor nomination, and Mazzei is currently at 21%.
LA-05 Republican nominee?
Donald Trump backed Blake Miguez in the LA-05 Republican nominee race, and Miguez is currently at 5%.
Donald Trump backed Blake Miguez in the LA-05 Republican nominee race, and Miguez is currently at 5%.
FL-07 Republican nominee?
Mike Johnson has raised $17,548,949.57 this cycle, while Cory Mills holds the lead in the latest odds for the Florida-07 Republican nominee race.
Mike Johnson has raised $17,548,949.57 this cycle, while Cory Mills holds the lead in the latest odds for the Florida-07 Republican nominee race.
California Governor primary: 1st place
New reporting and fresh polls show Xavier Becerra leading the field while Steve Hilton and Tom Steyer remain in the fight for the second top-two slot, reinforcing the same tight three-way contest traders have been pricing into the primary.
California Governor primary: 1st place
New reporting and fresh polls show Xavier Becerra leading the field while Steve Hilton and Tom Steyer remain in the fight for the second top-two slot, reinforcing the same tight three-way contest traders have been pricing into the primary.
Alaska Governor winner? (Person)
The endorsement from Alaska’s last Democratic governor gives Kreiss-Tomkins a high-profile boost in a crowded race, potentially helping him stand out as the field tightens.
The endorsement from Alaska’s last Democratic governor gives Kreiss-Tomkins a high-profile boost in a crowded race, potentially helping him stand out as the field tightens.
Minnesota Republican Governor nominee?
Fresh coverage shows Minnesota Republicans are gathering in Duluth to decide a key endorsement battle between Lisa Demuth, Kendall Qualls and Mike Lindell, with Demuth and Qualls framed as the frontrunners. That makes the market worth rechecking because the endorsement outcome could quickly reset the nomination path.
Minnesota Republican Governor nominee?
Fresh coverage shows Minnesota Republicans are gathering in Duluth to decide a key endorsement battle between Lisa Demuth, Kendall Qualls and Mike Lindell, with Demuth and Qualls framed as the frontrunners. That makes the market worth rechecking because the endorsement outcome could quickly reset the nomination path.
FL-22 Democratic nominee?
Fresh reporting says Debbie Wasserman Schultz is now running in Florida’s 20th District, while local Democrats and DNC members are publicly criticizing the move. That keeps FL-22’s Democratic nominee race more open and reinforces the earlier market repricing away from her.
Fresh reporting says Debbie Wasserman Schultz is now running in Florida’s 20th District, while local Democrats and DNC members are publicly criticizing the move. That keeps FL-22’s Democratic nominee race more open and reinforces the earlier market repricing away from her.
LA-01 Republican nominee?
Louisiana lawmakers moved a new congressional redistricting plan forward today, keeping the district’s GOP primary situation politically unsettled. That adds fresh news context to Steve Scalise’s already heavily repriced nominee market and keeps traders focused on whether the race becomes more or less certain as the map fight continues.
Louisiana lawmakers moved a new congressional redistricting plan forward today, keeping the district’s GOP primary situation politically unsettled. That adds fresh news context to Steve Scalise’s already heavily repriced nominee market and keeps traders focused on whether the race becomes more or less certain as the map fight continues.
CA-04 primary: first place
Eric Jones's odds are down 49.0 points and are now at 11% in the CA-04 primary: first place race.
Eric Jones's odds are down 49.0 points and are now at 11% in the CA-04 primary: first place race.
Iowa Senate winner? (Person)
Ashley Hinson has raised $5,600,532 this cycle, but Josh Turek holds the lead in the latest odds for Iowa Senate winner? (Person).
Ashley Hinson has raised $5,600,532 this cycle, but Josh Turek holds the lead in the latest odds for Iowa Senate winner? (Person).
NY-10 Democratic nominee?
A new Emerson poll gives Lander a 57-23 lead over Dan Goldman, and local coverage keeps the race centered on whether Goldman can close the gap before the June 23 primary. That’s trader-relevant because it reinforces the market’s Lander-favored pricing and suggests the incumbent’s path remains narrow despite continuing attention.
A new Emerson poll gives Lander a 57-23 lead over Dan Goldman, and local coverage keeps the race centered on whether Goldman can close the gap before the June 23 primary. That’s trader-relevant because it reinforces the market’s Lander-favored pricing and suggests the incumbent’s path remains narrow despite continuing attention.
2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
Donald Trump backed JD Vance for the "2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?" race, and Vance is currently at 18%.
2028 Republican presidential nominee
JD Vance is now backed by Donald Trump and is listed at 32% for the 2028 Republican presidential nominee race.
FL-22 Democratic nominee?
Debbie Wasserman Schultz has raised $2,502,688.61 this cycle, but Pia Dandiya holds the lead in the latest odds for "FL-22 Democratic nominee?"
Debbie Wasserman Schultz has raised $2,502,688.61 this cycle, but Pia Dandiya holds the lead in the latest odds for "FL-22 Democratic nominee?"
Maine Democratic Governor nominee?
Jared Golden has raised $2,582,574.96 this cycle, while Troy Jackson leads the latest odds for the Maine Democratic Governor nominee race.
Jared Golden has raised $2,582,574.96 this cycle, while Troy Jackson leads the latest odds for the Maine Democratic Governor nominee race.
Connecticut Democratic Governor nominee?
Luke Bronin has raised $2,303,190.21 this cycle, but Ned Lamont leads the latest odds for the Connecticut Democratic Governor nominee race.
Luke Bronin has raised $2,303,190.21 this cycle, but Ned Lamont leads the latest odds for the Connecticut Democratic Governor nominee race.
Michigan Democratic Senate nominee?
The latest poll has Haley Stevens ahead by 12.0 points, but Abdul El-Sayed is the odds leader and Stevens is at 27%.
The latest poll has Haley Stevens ahead by 12.0 points, but Abdul El-Sayed is the odds leader and Stevens is at 27%.
Georgia Republican Senate nominee?
New Georgia reporting says Mike Collins is dealing with backlash after a longtime adviser was dismissed over a vulgar post, adding a fresh campaign-risk angle as he heads into the June 16 GOP runoff against Derek Dooley.
Georgia Republican Senate nominee?
New Georgia reporting says Mike Collins is dealing with backlash after a longtime adviser was dismissed over a vulgar post, adding a fresh campaign-risk angle as he heads into the June 16 GOP runoff against Derek Dooley.
Michigan Democratic Governor nominee?
Mallory McMorrow has raised $8,624,066 this cycle, but Jocelyn Benson holds the lead in the latest odds for Michigan Democratic Governor nominee.
Mallory McMorrow has raised $8,624,066 this cycle, but Jocelyn Benson holds the lead in the latest odds for Michigan Democratic Governor nominee.
MD-05 Democratic nominee?
Quincy Bareebe has raised $3,518,303 this cycle, but Adrian Boafo leads the latest odds for the MD-05 Democratic nominee race.
Quincy Bareebe has raised $3,518,303 this cycle, but Adrian Boafo leads the latest odds for the MD-05 Democratic nominee race.
Wisconsin Republican Governor nominee?
Bryan Steil has raised $4,376,364.75 this cycle, but Tom Tiffany holds the lead in the latest odds for "Wisconsin Republican Governor nominee?"
Bryan Steil has raised $4,376,364.75 this cycle, but Tom Tiffany holds the lead in the latest odds for "Wisconsin Republican Governor nominee?"
MA-06 Democratic nominee?
The latest poll has Tram Nguyen ahead by 19.0 points, but Dan Koh is still the odds leader.
The latest poll has Tram Nguyen ahead by 19.0 points, but Dan Koh is still the odds leader.
FL-20 House winner?
New reporting shows intensified intraparty criticism over Debbie Wasserman Schultz’s decision to run in FL-20, reinforcing this seat as the center of the Democratic primary fight and a likely November hold. That keeps the market focused on primary volatility rather than the general-election outcome.
New reporting shows intensified intraparty criticism over Debbie Wasserman Schultz’s decision to run in FL-20, reinforcing this seat as the center of the Democratic primary fight and a likely November hold. That keeps the market focused on primary volatility rather than the general-election outcome.
California Governor winner?
Steyer is ahead by 25.0 points in the latest poll, but Xavier Becerra leads the odds for California governor.
Steyer is ahead by 25.0 points in the latest poll, but Xavier Becerra leads the odds for California governor.
Minnesota Democratic Senate nominee?
Omar’s endorsement keeps Flanagan’s intraparty coalition advantage in focus and reinforces her lead over Angie Craig in the Democratic nomination market.
Omar’s endorsement keeps Flanagan’s intraparty coalition advantage in focus and reinforces her lead over Angie Craig in the Democratic nomination market.
FL-25 Democratic nominee?
Debbie Wasserman Schultz’s move away from FL-25 is a fresh, trader-relevant development for the Democratic nominee market: it changes the incumbent picture in the district and leaves Jared Moskowitz and Oliver Larkin as the main names to price against in FL-25.
Debbie Wasserman Schultz’s move away from FL-25 is a fresh, trader-relevant development for the Democratic nominee market: it changes the incumbent picture in the district and leaves Jared Moskowitz and Oliver Larkin as the main names to price against in FL-25.
VA-07 Republican nominee?
Doug Ollivant's odds are up 41.0 points and are now at 42% in "VA-07 Republican nominee?" over a 3-day streak.
Doug Ollivant's odds are up 41.0 points and are now at 42% in "VA-07 Republican nominee?" over a 3-day streak.
TN-03 Democratic nominee?
Bryan Martin's odds are up 28 points and are now at 28% in "TN-03 Democratic nominee?" over a 3-day streak.
Bryan Martin's odds are up 28 points and are now at 28% in "TN-03 Democratic nominee?" over a 3-day streak.
Indiana Republican Secretary of State nominee?
Diego Morales's odds are down 63.9 points and are now at 4% in "Indiana Republican Secretary of State nominee?" over a 3-day streak.
Diego Morales's odds are down 63.9 points and are now at 4% in "Indiana Republican Secretary of State nominee?" over a 3-day streak.
Maine Republican Governor nominee?
Jonathan Bush is now at 27% in "Maine Republican Governor nominee?" after gaining 18.0 points over the 3-day streak.
Jonathan Bush is now at 27% in "Maine Republican Governor nominee?" after gaining 18.0 points over the 3-day streak.
South Dakota Republican Governor nominee?
Toby Doeden's odds are up 17 points and are now at 44% in "South Dakota Republican Governor nominee?" over a 3-day streak.
Toby Doeden's odds are up 17 points and are now at 44% in "South Dakota Republican Governor nominee?" over a 3-day streak.
MI-10 Democratic nominee?
Christina Hines's odds are up 23 points and are now 23% in "MI-10 Democratic nominee?" over a 3-day streak.
Christina Hines's odds are up 23 points and are now 23% in "MI-10 Democratic nominee?" over a 3-day streak.
TN-06 Democratic nominee?
Lore Bergman's odds are up 77.0 points and now stand at 59% over a 3-day streak.
Lore Bergman's odds are up 77.0 points and now stand at 59% over a 3-day streak.
KS-02 Republican nominee?
Chad Young's odds are down 36.0 points and are now at 8% in "KS-02 Republican nominee?" over a 3-day streak.
Chad Young's odds are down 36.0 points and are now at 8% in "KS-02 Republican nominee?" over a 3-day streak.
MI-10 Democratic nominee?
Eric Chung's odds are down 21.0 points and are now at 61% over a 3-day streak.
Eric Chung's odds are down 21.0 points and are now at 61% over a 3-day streak.
FL-10 Republican nominee?
Willie Montague's odds are up 47.0 points and are now at 47% in "FL-10 Republican nominee?" over a 3-day streak.
Willie Montague's odds are up 47.0 points and are now at 47% in "FL-10 Republican nominee?" over a 3-day streak.
Indiana Republican Secretary of State nominee?
David Shelton's odds are down 48.0 points and are now at 13% in "Indiana Republican Secretary of State nominee?" over a 3-day streak.
David Shelton's odds are down 48.0 points and are now at 13% in "Indiana Republican Secretary of State nominee?" over a 3-day streak.
AZ-01 Republican nominee?
Fresh reporting says the AZ-01 Republican primary escalated into a nasty public spat, with Chaplik attacking Feely over immigration and race-sensitive comments. That kind of negative attention can move trader sentiment in a closely watched, open-seat GOP contest.
Fresh reporting says the AZ-01 Republican primary escalated into a nasty public spat, with Chaplik attacking Feely over immigration and race-sensitive comments. That kind of negative attention can move trader sentiment in a closely watched, open-seat GOP contest.
Georgia Republican Secretary of State nominee?
Tim Fleming's odds are up 37.6 points and are now at 87% in "Georgia Republican Secretary of State nominee?" over a 3-day streak.
Tim Fleming's odds are up 37.6 points and are now at 87% in "Georgia Republican Secretary of State nominee?" over a 3-day streak.
CA-11 House winner? (Person)
Nancy Pelosi’s endorsement gives Connie Chan a fresh, high-profile boost in the open-seat CA-11 race, reinforcing her as the main alternative to Scott Wiener and giving traders a concrete new catalyst to reprice second-place dynamics.
Nancy Pelosi’s endorsement gives Connie Chan a fresh, high-profile boost in the open-seat CA-11 race, reinforcing her as the main alternative to Scott Wiener and giving traders a concrete new catalyst to reprice second-place dynamics.
California Governor winner?
Xavier Becerra's odds are up 16.0 points and are now at 60% over a 3-day streak.
Xavier Becerra's odds are up 16.0 points and are now at 60% over a 3-day streak.
Georgia Republican Governor nominee?
Rick Jackson's odds are down 22.0 points and are now at 20% over a 3-day streak.
Rick Jackson's odds are down 22.0 points and are now at 20% over a 3-day streak.
CT-01 Democratic nominee?
The latest poll has John Larson ahead by 26.0 points, but Luke Bronin leads the odds for the Connecticut 1st District Democratic nominee race.
The latest poll has John Larson ahead by 26.0 points, but Luke Bronin leads the odds for the Connecticut 1st District Democratic nominee race.
FL-22 Democratic nominee?
Debbie Wasserman Schultz's odds are up 30.0 points and are now at 89% in "FL-22 Democratic nominee?" over a 3-day streak.
Debbie Wasserman Schultz's odds are up 30.0 points and are now at 89% in "FL-22 Democratic nominee?" over a 3-day streak.
South Dakota Republican Governor nominee?
Rhoden led the poll by 4.0 points, but Dusty Johnson is ahead in the odds and Rhoden's current odds are 11%.
Rhoden led the poll by 4.0 points, but Dusty Johnson is ahead in the odds and Rhoden's current odds are 11%.
Los Angeles mayoral election: first round winner
Karen Bass's odds are up 16.0 points over a 3-day streak and are now 74%.
Karen Bass's odds are up 16.0 points over a 3-day streak and are now 74%.
