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Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.
source: Kalshi
November
TUE 3
California 2026 general election
New polling shows Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco leading a divided field, with no Democrat breaking 13%. That keeps alive the chance of two Republicans advancing under California’s top-two primary system. A debate exclusion fight is also adding attention to candidate viability and campaign momentum. The latest polling appears to improve Republican chances of reaching the general election and adds pressure on Democrats to consolidate. Overall uncertainty remains high because the field is still fragmented.
No Democrat tops 13% while the GOP contenders sit in the high teens.

Despite Democrats' long reign in California, a poll shows two Republicans leading by slim margins in the race for governor as the June primary fast approaches.

A new poll showed a tight race among leading candidates in the primary as lockout concerns loom for Democrats.

Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass (D-Useless) has seen her job approval rating plummet to 24 percent, but she’s still likely to get reelected. She still leads all of her 2026 competition. | Politics

LOS ANGELES (AP) — A late-hour attempt by California’s top Democratic official to thin out the party’s crowded field for governor emphatically flopped, leaving the contest virtually unchanged and Democrats vexed over the possibility of a Republican upset in November.
LOS ANGELES (AP) — Fearful that an election quirk could result in heavily Democratic California installing a Republican as its next governor, a top Democrat on…

California's gubernatorial race is wide open, with the five leading candidates in a "virtual tie," according to a new poll.

Steve Hilton says Chad Bianco should to drop out of the California governor’s race after new poll shows Hilton leading.

An attorney for Antonio Villaraigosa sent ABC and USC a letter, demanding his inclusion in an upcoming debate.






| Date (Start - End) | Spread | Becerra | Steyer | Hilton | Porter | Bianco |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polling Average | Becerra+14.0 | 51.3% | 37.3% | 33.8% | 26.0% | 15.0% |
Public Policy Institute of CaliforniaJun 29 - Jul 6 | Becerra+25.0 | 61.0% | – | 36.0% | – | – |
Kreate StrategiesJun 13 - 17 | Becerra+25.0 | 58.0% | – | 33.0% | – | – |
University of Southern California/California State University Long Beach Center for Urban Politics and Policy/Cal Poly PomonaMay 23 - 26 | Becerra+23.0 | 58.0% | – | 35.0% | – | – |
University of Southern California/California State University Long Beach Center for Urban Politics and Policy/Cal Poly PomonaMay 23 - 26 | Becerra+11.0 | 37.0% | 26.0% | – | – | – |
University of Southern California/California State University Long Beach Center for Urban Politics and Policy/Cal Poly PomonaMay 23 - 26 | Steyer+1.0 | – | 31.0% | – | 30.0% | – |
University of Southern California/California State University Long Beach Center for Urban Politics and Policy/Cal Poly PomonaMay 23 - 26 | Becerra+20.0 | 42.0% | – | – | 22.0% | – |
University of Southern California/California State University Long Beach Center for Urban Politics and Policy/Cal Poly PomonaMay 23 - 26 | Hilton+19.0 | – | – | 34.0% | – | 15.0% |
University of Southern California/California State University Long Beach Center for Urban Politics and Policy/Cal Poly PomonaMay 23 - 26 | Steyer+21.0 | – | 55.0% | 34.0% | – | – |
University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental StudiesMay 19 - 24 | Becerra+21.0 | 52.0% | – | 31.0% | – | – |
Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne
SEIU Local 1000
SEIU Local 1000 endorsed Xavier Becerra in the general election for governor.
California Democratic Party
California Democratic Party endorsed Xavier Becerra for governor of California.
California Teachers Association
California Teachers Association endorsed Xavier Becerra for governor.
Governor Gavin Newsom
Governor Gavin Newsom endorsed Xavier Becerra for California governor.
The San Francisco Examiner
The San Francisco Examiner endorsed Xavier Becerra for governor.
United Food & Commercial Workers Western States Council
United Food & Commercial Workers Western States Council endorsed Xavier Becerra for California governor.
California Academy of Family Physicians
California Academy of Family Physicians endorsed Xavier Becerra for California governor.
California Medical Association
California Medical Association endorsed Xavier Becerra for governor.
Planned Parenthood Affiliates of California
Planned Parenthood Affiliates of California endorsed Xavier Becerra for governor.
Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas
Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas endorsed Xavier Becerra for governor.
14 Democratic members of the California Assembly
Fourteen Democratic members of the California Assembly endorsed Xavier Becerra for governor.
California Faculty Association
California Faculty Association endorsed Xavier Becerra for California governor.
Modoc County Republican Party
The Modoc County Republican Party endorsed Chad Bianco for California governor.
Sacramento County Republican Party
The Sacramento County Republican Party issued a dual endorsement including Chad Bianco for California governor.
Shasta County GOP
The Shasta County Republican Committee endorsed Chad Bianco for governor.
Shasta County Republican Committee
The Shasta County Republican Committee endorsed Chad Bianco for governor.
California Republican Assembly
The California Republican Assembly endorsed Chad Bianco for governor.
McClatchy Editorial Board
McClatchy Editorial Board endorsed Eleni Kounalakis for California treasurer.
Mercury News Editorial Board
Mercury News Editorial Board endorsed Eleni Kounalakis for California treasurer.
The Examiner Editorial Board
The Examiner Editorial Board endorsed Eleni Kounalakis for California state treasurer.
San Francisco Chronicle Editorial Board
San Francisco Chronicle Editorial Board endorsed Eleni Kounalakis for California treasurer.
California Federation of Labor Unions
California Federation of Labor Unions endorsed Eleni Kounalakis.
Jasmine Crockett
Jasmine Crockett endorsed Kamala Harris in Texas' Democratic Senate primary.
Rep. Liccardo
Rep. Liccardo endorsed Matt Mahan after Mahan entered the 2026 California governor's race.
E. SwalwellEric Swalwell
A. PadillaAlex Padilla
E. AgarwalEthan Agarwal
K. PorterKatie Porter
X. BecerraXavier BecerraSource: FEC




