Polling Average
50%40%30%20%10%0%
40.5%
28.1%
9%
7.7%
5.6%
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$122.9K
AUG 4, 2026Primary Election
Party selects its nominee.
Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.
source: Kalshi
Republican candidate Tom Leonard is campaigning in a crowded 2026 Michigan GOP gubernatorial primary. He rolled out a proposal to appoint an Upper Peninsula “ambassador” to the governor’s office if elected. Broader coverage continues to frame Michigan’s 2026 statewide races, including the open governor’s race, as competitive and unpredictable. Leonard’s proposal is mostly campaign positioning and doesn’t clearly change the nomination outlook on its own. The emphasis on a crowded, volatile primary environment may keep uncertainty elevated in the market.
At stake is more than any single race. Democrats are fighting over whether the party's traditional playbook still works in a country that elected Donald Trump for a second time — and whether leaders like Schumer should remain in charge.
Democrats are trying to win back the Senate. But they are fighting over how to do it. Chuck Schumer is backing establishment candidates in key races. Some of his own senators are breaking ranks and endorsing more progressive challengers.
Jocelyn Benson’s journey to the Michigan governor’s race began with Viola Liuzzo, a mother from Detroit who set out for Selma in March of 1965 to join the fight for voting rights.
While dozens of seats are technically on the ballot, certain House, Senate, and gubernatorial races could flip seats and state control.
Several new polls released this week reveal Crockett and Talarico's chances in next week's Democratic primary race.
The Republican gubernatorial candidate says the proposal to appoint an ambassador to the UP stemmed from conversations he had during a listening tour.
M. RogersMike Rogers
L. McClainLisa McClainJ. JamesJohn James
P. MeijerPeter Meijer