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Who will win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican Primary?

Aug 5, 2026, 3:59am UTC, in 18 daysLast updated: Jul 18, 2026, 9:30 AM UTC

Michigan Republican Governor nominee?

$392.0K

AUG 5, 2026

Primary Election

Party selects its nominee.

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OddsCurrent Odds

Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.

Total volume

$392.0K

24h volume

$24.1K

J. James83%

P. Johnson18%

A. Nesbitt1%

No chart data available yet.

source: Kalshi

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Latest Insights

Michigan Republican Governor nominee?

John James is now at 82% and leads by 72.9 points in the Michigan Republican governor nomination race.

82%

News

AINews Summary

Aric Nesbitt has pushed for a federal review of two Dearborn nonprofits, adding a new issue-focused move in the Republican primary. Tom Leonard also rolled out a U.P.-focused proposal. Separately, Michigan corrected a Real ID compliance report, but that looks more like a government update than a primary-shifting development. The new items are mostly candidate-specific and do not clearly shift the primary race. They may slightly boost attention for Nesbitt and Leonard, but overall uncertainty remains high.

Articles

MLM Live Michigan 5 months ago

Governor candidate wants to appoint ambassador to the Upper Peninsula

The Republican gubernatorial candidate says the proposal to appoint an ambassador to the UP stemmed from conversations he had during a listening tour.

WCWDIV ClickOnDetroit5 months ago

Dearborn nonprofits respond to use of taxpayer funds after state senator calls for federal review

Two Dearborn-based nonprofits are defending their operations after State Senate Republican leader Aric Nesbitt called for a federal review of their use of taxpayer funds.

FNFox News4 months ago

Republicans optimistic about Senate gains despite midterm headwinds

Midterm elections 2026 present high hurdles for Republicans defending Senate control amid inflation concerns and President Donald Trump's underwater approval ratings.

MLM Live Michigan 5 months ago

Michigan releases new Real ID data after publishing inaccurate report

A report published this month by the Michigan Department of State initially shared incorrect data on the state’s compliance with Real ID.

TGThe Gateway Pundit6 months ago

NOT NORMAL: Over 10K Detroit "Voters" Made Same Bizarre "Ghost Vote" Marks On Ballots In 2020 Election---Were Mismarked Ballots Sending A Message To Voting Machines or Meant to Trigger "Adjudication"?

After years of being gaslighted by some of the most dishonest people in government and the media, The Gateway Pundit, along with some of the most respected election investigators in the state, are looking forward to blowing the lid off the lies about Detroit’s “secure” 2020 election that helped to give Joe Biden with an inexplicable victory in the must-win state of Michigan.

Polls

Polling Average

40%30%20%10%0%

32.1%

21.0%

14.5%

5.5%

J. James

P. Johnson

M. Cox

A. Nesbitt

T. Leonard

Date (Start - End)	Spread	James	Johnson	Cox	Nesbitt	Leonard
Polling Average	James+11.1	32.1%	21.0%	14.5%	5.5%	2.4%
OnMessageJun 28 - 30	James+25.0	46.0%	21.0%	14.0%	–	–
Strategic NationalJun 10 - 14	Johnson+2.7	23.8%	26.5%	12.4%	5.9%	–
Susquehanna Polling & ResearchJun 9 - 14	James+18.0	38.0%	10.0%	20.0%	3.0%	–
Mitchell Research & CommunicationsJun 11 - 13	James+1.0	28.0%	23.0%	27.0%	4.0%	–
Tarrance GroupJun 1 - 4	James+12.0	38.0%	26.0%	22.0%	12.0%	–
TIPP InsightsMay 20 - 23	James+11.0	31.0%	19.0%	20.0%	3.0%	–
1892 PollingMay 12 - 14	James+1.0	24.0%	23.0%	7.0%	7.0%	–
Mitchell Research & CommunicationsMay 1 - 7	James+9.0	32.0%	23.0%	19.0%	7.0%	–
Glengariff GroupApr 24 - 24	James+17.2	37.0%	19.8%	9.9%	6.9%	2.6%
OnMessageApr 15 - 18	James+23.0	41.0%	18.0%	7.0%	5.0%	–
Emerson CollegeApr 11 - 13	Johnson+1.2	20.2%	21.4%	10.2%	2.8%	3.7%
1892 PollingMar 25 - 26	James+5.0	26.0%	21.0%	6.0%	4.0%	1.0%