Polling Average
60%50%40%30%20%10%0%
46.9%
43.0%
41.6%
G. Platner
J. Mills
S. Collins
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$279.0K
NOV 3, 2026
General Election
Voters choose the office holder.
Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.
Total volume
$279.0K
24h volume
$649
source: Kalshi
Sen. Susan Collins has launched her 2026 reelection bid, and recent coverage cites polls showing Democratic challengers ahead and warning she could be vulnerable if Trump approval stays low. On the Democratic side, Graham Platner is leading Gov. Janet Mills in primary polling. Endorsements are split between party leaders backing Mills and progressives backing Platner. The polling narrative and vulnerability framing could modestly boost expectations of a Democratic win, but the unsettled Democratic primary adds uncertainty. Collins running removes uncertainty about the GOP nominee and keeps the race centered on her matchup.
Henry Olsen, who correctly predicted Trump would win the popular vote, is warning Republicans safe Senate seats may be at risk.
The latest Maine Senate poll showed Platner with a lead over Governor Janet Mills among Democratic voters.
At stake is more than any single race. Democrats are fighting over whether the party's traditional playbook still works in a country that elected Donald Trump for a second time — and whether leaders like Schumer should remain in charge.
Democrats are trying to win back the Senate. But they are fighting over how to do it. Chuck Schumer is backing establishment candidates in key races. Some of his own senators are breaking ranks and endorsing more progressive challengers.
“Clearly there’s a disagreement of strategy here,” said New Mexico Sen. Martin Heinrich, speaking of the Maine race in particular.
Arizona Democrat Ruben Gallego announced that he was backing Platner, saying that the first-time candidate “reflects the grit and independence that defines Maine.”
While dozens of seats are technically on the ballot, certain House, Senate, and gubernatorial races could flip seats and state control.
Maine’s Republican Sen. Susan Collins has announced her reelection bid, entering a closely watched race that Democrats have targeted in their effort to retake the Senate majority in Congress in this year’s midterm elections
Sen. Susan Collins announces 2026 re-election campaign as Senate Democrats target the Maine Republican senator, with Chuck Schumer making her his top priority for midterms.
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We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.