$815.4K
JUL 29, 2026Primary Election
Party selects its nominee.
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Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.
source: Kalshi
Toby Doeden is now confirmed to advance to a July runoff against Larry Rhoden, keeping the nomination fight live and forcing traders to reprice a two-candidate finish rather than a single-round result.
Doeden is now confirmed to move on to a July runoff, giving traders a fresh, concrete outcome to reprice after the primary-night volatility in the GOP governor market.
Toby Doeden is now at 52% and leads by 19.0 points in the South Dakota Republican governor nomination race.
Dan Ahlers has entered the South Dakota governor race and plans a formal launch in Sioux Falls. He brings prior legislative experience and a past Senate run. On the Republican side, four candidates have already declared, including Gov. Larry Rhoden and Rep. Dusty Johnson. This news does not directly change the Republican nomination race, but it adds a Democratic candidate to the broader governor contest. The GOP field remains active and competitive with multiple declared candidates.
Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne
D. JohnsonDusty JohnsonSource: FEC
New updates coming soon
We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.
