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Who will win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican Primary?

Aug 12, 2026, 3:59am UTC, in 16 daysLast updated: Jul 27, 2026, 9:30 AM UTC

Minnesota Republican Governor nominee?

$389.3K

AUG 12, 2026

Primary Election

Party selects its nominee.

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OddsCurrent Odds

Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.

Total volume

$389.3K

24h volume

$4.2K

M. Lindell53%

L. Demuth43%

K. Qualls1%

No chart data available yet.

source: Kalshi

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Latest Insights

Minnesota Republican Governor nominee?

Donald Trump backed Mike Lindell for Minnesota Republican governor nominee, and Lindell is at 52%.

52%

News

AINews Summary

Scott Jensen’s exit is the biggest recent change in the Minnesota GOP governor race. Jeff Johnson has also suspended his campaign after a family tragedy. With Chris Madel already out, Kristin Robbins and Phillip Parrish are now the main names left in the field. The field has narrowed, which may improve the standing of the remaining candidates. Johnson’s suspension adds more uncertainty, while the broader GOP environment in blue states may remain challenging.

Articles

WEWashington Examiner6 months ago

Minnesota GOP gubernatorial primary narrows further after Jensen drops bid

Jensen is the second GOP candidate to drop out of the governor's race in Minnesota after Republican attorney Chris Madel ended his campaign last month.

NNewsmax6 months ago

Daughter of Minn. GOP Gov. Candidate Johnson Dies; Husband Suspected

Authorities said Hallie Marie Tobler, 22, was found with fatal injuries, while her husband, Dylan Tobler, 23, was hospitalized with wounds believed to be self-inflicted.

NNewsweek6 months ago

Republicans’ Chances of Beating Amy Klobuchar to Flip Minnesota-Poll

A new poll showed how Republican candidates fare against Klobuchar in Minnesota's gubernatorial race.

CNCable News Network4 months ago

Analysis: Trump’s 2024 showing raised GOP hopes in blue states. Now he’s in retreat

After President Donald Trump’s unexpectedly competitive showings in big blue states around the country, Republicans emerged from the 2024 election expressing optimism about their prospects in places that Democrats have dominated for years. But as the midterm election approaches, those prospects have dwindled.

Polls

Polling Average

30%25%20%15%10%5%0%

24.3%

23.8%

15.6%

12%

M. Lindell

L. Demuth

K. Qualls

S. Jensen

K. Robbins

B. Kohler

Date (Start - End)	Spread	Lindell	Demuth	Qualls	Jensen	Robbins	Kohler
Polling Average	Lindell+0.4	24.3%	23.8%	15.6%	12.0%	3.0%	1.0%
SurveyUSAJul 15 - 20	Lindell+9.0	35.0%	26.0%	11.0%	–	–	–
Big Data PollJun 26 - 29	Lindell+4.7	24.5%	19.8%	9.6%	–	–	–
Minnesota Private Business CouncilJun 23 - 25	Demuth+5.2	20.4%	29.1%	23.9%	–	–	–
Minnesota Private Business CouncilJun 23 - 25	Demuth+5.9	23.7%	33.6%	27.7%	–	–	–
SurveyUSAJun 11 - 16	Lindell+5.0	27.0%	22.0%	17.0%	–	–	–
Big Data PollMay 18 - 20	Lindell+1.9	21.3%	19.4%	8.8%	–	–	–
Peak InsightsJan 31 - Feb 1	Lindell+1.0	18.0%	17.0%	11.0%	12.0%	3.0%	1.0%