Polling Average
30%25%20%15%10%5%0%
23.2%
20.6%
13%
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$247.0K
AUG 4, 2026Primary Election
Party selects its nominee.
Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.
source: Kalshi
New coverage spotlights Abdul El-Sayed drawing a large, youth-heavy crowd at the University of Michigan, even as he faces criticism over campaigning with streamer Hasan Piker. Multiple reports still describe the Democratic primary as a tight three-way contest with Haley Stevens and Mallory McMorrow. Separately, Democrats pointed to a big Wisconsin court win as a sign of momentum heading into 2026. The rally coverage could modestly boost sentiment around El-Sayed by highlighting enthusiasm, though the controversy adds mixed signals. Overall, the “tight three-way” framing may keep odds dispersed and uncertainty elevated.
After weeks of public consternation that Abdul El-Sayed would be campaigning with left-wing Twitch streamer Hasan Piker, it was enthusiasm that greeted the Democratic candidate Tuesday night.
Many young voters say politics isn’t delivering and they want candidates who offer something new, not just opposition. But at events like one Tuesday in Ann Arbor, Michigan, they remain engaged.
Swings from red to blue in recent elections added more data points to an increasingly clear picture of Democratic momentum heading into the November midterms.
U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders
U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders endorsed Abdul El-Sayed for U.S. Senate in Michigan in 2026.
ModSquad PAC
ModSquad PAC endorsed Haley Stevens in Michigan's Democratic U.S. Senate primary.
H. StevensHaley Stevens
M. McMorrowMallory McMorrowA. El-SayedAbdul El-Sayed
K. RivetKristen McDonald Rivet
R. TlaibRashida Tlaib
A. LevinAndy Levin