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High Impact14d

Jerry Carl

86%

Donald Trump backed Jerry Carl in the AL-01 Republican nominee race, and Carl is currently at 86%.

ActivePrimary ElectionRepublican

Who will win the 2026 Alabama District 1 US House Republican Primary first round?

Aug 12, 2026, 6:59am GMT+3, in 64 daysLast updated: Jun 9, 2026, 3:30 PM UTC

AL-01 Republican nominee?

$44.7K

AUG 12, 2026

Primary Election

Party selects its nominee.

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OddsCurrent Odds

Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.

Total volume

$44.7K

24h volume

J. Carl89%

R. Marques5%

A. Sidwell5%

Loading chart data...

source: Kalshi

Upcoming Events

June

TUE 16

Alabama 2026 primary runoff, if required

November

TUE 3

Alabama 2026 general election

Latest Insights

AL-01 Republican nominee?

14dHigh Impact

Donald Trump backed Jerry Carl in the AL-01 Republican nominee race, and Carl is currently at 86%.

86%

AL-01 Republican nominee?

27dHigh Impact

Jerry Carl's odds are now 87%, above the prior high of 52%.

87%35%

AL-01 Republican nominee?

26d

Recent reporting says Alabama has moved to hold special primaries in District 1 after the court/map change, with some candidates switching districts. That adds fresh uncertainty to a race that was already volatile and can materially affect who remains in the AL-01 Republican nominee market.

Polls

Polling Average

40%30%20%10%0%

28.0%

13.5%

5.6%

J. Carl

R. Marques

J. McKee

A. Sidwell

J. Richardson

J. Mills

Date (Start - End)	Spread	Carl	Marques	McKee	Sidwell	Richardson	Mills
Polling Average	Carl+14.5	28.0%	13.5%	5.6%	2.5%	0.5%	0.5%
PI PollingApr 20 - 22	Marques+2.0	20.0%	22.0%	6.0%	4.0%	1.0%	0.0%
PI PollingMar 31 - Apr 2	Carl+4.0	23.0%	19.0%	–	–	–	–
The Alabama PollMar 5 - 8	Carl+9.0	28.0%	19.0%	9.0%	–	–	–
AM Research GroupJan 31 - Feb 2	Carl+36.0	43.0%	7.0%	2.0%	1.0%	0.0%	1.0%
The Alabama PollJan 23 - 23	Carl+16.0	25.2%	9.2%	8.8%	–	–	–
CygnalAug 21 - 22	Carl+24.0	29.0%	5.0%	2.0%	–	–	–

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Endorsements

Jerry Carl

Donald Trump

Donald Trump endorsed Jerry Carl for Alabama's 1st Congressional District.

Learn more

Fundraising

Total RaisedCash on Hand

Apr 29, 2026

$2M

$1.5M

$1M

$500K

R. Marques

J. Carl

J. McKee

A. Sidwell

J. Richardson

Candidate

Total Raised

Cash on Hand

Burn Rate (per month)

Last report

R. MarquesRhett Marques

$1.13MContrib: $1.13M

$469.3KSpent: $663.0K

$41.4KLast period: $54.1K

PRE-PRIMARY · Apr 29, 2026

J. CarlJerry Carl

$757.0KContrib: $675.0K

$269.6KSpent: $556.7K

$34.8KLast period: $31.7K

PRE-PRIMARY · Apr 29, 2026

J. McKeeJoshua McKee

$481.8KContrib: $256.5K

$111.3KSpent: $370.5K

$23.2KLast period: $19.3K

PRE-PRIMARY · Apr 29, 2026

A. SidwellAustin Sidwell

$175.5KContrib: $51.4K

$19.6KSpent: $155.8K

$9.7KLast period: $12.5K

PRE-PRIMARY · Apr 29, 2026

J. RichardsonJames Richardson

$6.9KContrib: $6.9K

$10Spent: $6.9K

$432Last period: $0

PRE-PRIMARY · Apr 29, 2026

Source: FEC

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

News

Who will win the 2026 Alabama District 1 US House Republican Primary first round?

AL-01 Republican nominee?

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AL-01 Republican nominee?

AL-01 Republican nominee?

AL-01 Republican nominee?

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Alabama Republican Senate nominee?

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AL-05 Democratic nominee?

AL-02 House winner?

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AL-01 Republican nominee?

AL-01 Republican nominee?

AL-01 Republican nominee?

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Related races

Alabama Republican Senate nominee?

Alabama Democratic Senate nominee?

AL-05 Democratic nominee?

AL-02 House winner?