$11.3K
AUG 12, 2026Primary Election
Party selects its nominee.
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Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.
source: Kalshi
Josh Elliott’s win probability has fallen from 11% yesterday to 2.1%, while Ned Lamont remains the overwhelming favorite. The move matters because it sharply widens the gap in a live primary market only days after Lamont secured the party endorsement, reinforcing Lamont’s control of the nomination race.
Luke Bronin has raised $2,303,190.21 this cycle, but Ned Lamont leads the latest odds for the Connecticut Democratic Governor nominee race.
Republicans are pressing a corruption message against Connecticut Democrats over a grants scandal and an FBI investigation tied to Sen. Douglas McCrory. They are also pushing a much larger tax and electricity relief plan than Gov. Ned Lamont's proposal. The news keeps oversight and affordability issues in focus, but the direct effect on the nomination race is unclear. The corruption allegations could create headwinds for Democrats if the issue sticks, but the GOP's motives are also being framed as political. The relief-plan contrast may keep affordability and fiscal issues front and center, with a mixed effect on the nomination market.
One of Lamont's unacknowledged strengths is his public composure and innate courtesy in an era when there escalating vulgarity in politics
The list of legislative retirements already includes Rep. Jillian Gilchrest, a four-term veteran Democrat who is running for Congress.
Connecticut Republicans have high hopes of capturing the statehouse for the first time in 20 years, with Gov. Ned Lamont seeking a third term this year and facing a primary from the Democratic Party's far left.
“When you have one-party rule that controls every single lever of state government, you get a level of arrogance, which we've seen right here in Connecticut,” said Sen. Harding.
CT Senate GOP offers relief three times larger than Lamont's
Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne
L. BroninLuke BroninSource: FEC
New updates coming soon
We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.
