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General Election
Voters choose the office holder.
Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.
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source: Kalshi
New polling paints a volatile Michigan governor race, with one survey showing a three-way tie between Benson (D), James (R), and Duggan (I), while another has Benson narrowly ahead of James with Duggan at 20%. James is still leading the GOP primary field, and Benson is widely described as the Democratic front-runner. The presence of a competitive independent candidate is a key factor in the race dynamics. Mixed polling and a credible independent bid from Duggan could increase uncertainty around which party ultimately wins. Benson’s edge in one head-to-head poll may modestly support Democratic odds, but the three-way tie tempers confidence.

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