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Which Party wins the 2026 California District 40 US House Election?

Nov 7, 2026, 6:59am GMT+2, in 151 daysLast updated: Jun 9, 2026, 3:30 PM UTC

CA-40 House winner?

$26.5K

NOV 7, 2026

General Election

Voters choose the office holder.

R. Party

97.5%

D. Party

4.5%

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OddsCurrent Odds

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Total volume

$26.5K

24h volume

$41

R. Party98%

D. Party5%

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source: Kalshi

Upcoming Events

November

TUE 3

California 2026 general election

Latest Insights

CA-40 House winner?

That’s below the previous low of 23%, setting a fresh floor for the Democratic Party in "CA-40 House winner?"

5%19%

CA-40 House winner?

Republican Party's odds are now 96%, above the previous high of 78%.

96%18%

CA-40 House winner?

That’s below the previous low of 23%, setting a fresh floor for the Democratic Party in this "CA-40 House winner?" race.

3%20%

News

AINews Summary

The CA-40 race is developing into a multi-candidate contest that includes incumbents Ken Calvert and Young Kim, along with independent candidate Nina Linh. The district is characterized as a safe Republican seat, but Linh’s candidacy is framed as tapping into voter disillusionment with the major parties. Her prospects are presented as contingent on fundraising capacity and attracting “politically homeless” voters. Because the district is described as a safe Republican seat, this news likely reinforces a Republican-leaning baseline in the market. However, the entry of an independent candidate introduces some uncertainty around vote-splitting and turnout dynamics, though the impact is unclear without evidence of major funding or broad support.

Articles

SASanta Ana Orange County Register3 months ago

Orange County’s congressional seats are changing. Here’s who filed to run for them in 2026

After redistricting, the county is split among eight congressional districts, up two from the 2024 elections.

SASanta Ana Orange County Register3 months ago

Race for redrawn California’s 40th Congressional District is starting to take shape

Momentum, money and 'politically homeless' voters are vital in a race that could determine which party controls the House after the midterms

SLShaw Local Enewspapers5 months ago

Labor, voting rights groups intervene in Illinois voter data lawsuit

From Capitol News Illinois: Legal experts, including two attorneys who formerly worked in the Voting Section of DOJ’s Civil Rights Division, argue DOJ has no legal authority to access sensitive personal data about individual voters

NNewsweek5 months ago

Mike Johnson’s Majority in Peril After Sudden Republican Death

The GOP's House majority shrunk following the death of Representative Doug LaMalfa, a California Republican.

SLShaw Local Enewspapers5 months ago

Two Republicans fall off the ballot in gubernatorial, Senate contests

Candidates in a pair of statewide races are off the March 17 primary ballot due to successful objections to their nominating petitions, Illinois State Board of Elections officials ruled Wednesday.

Polls

Polling Average

50%40%30%20%10%0%

44%

43.5%

K. Calvert

Y. Kim

E. Varet

Date (Start - End)	Spread	Calvert	Kim	Varet
Polling Average	Calvert+0.0	44.0%	44.0%	43.5%
Tulchin ResearchJan 14 - 19	Kim+1.0	–	44.0%	43.0%
Tulchin ResearchJan 14 - 19	Varet+0.0	44.0%	–	44.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

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Which Party wins the 2026 California District 40 US House Election?

CA-40 House winner?

OddsCurrent Odds

Upcoming Events

Latest Insights

CA-40 House winner?

CA-40 House winner?

CA-40 House winner?

News

Orange County’s congressional seats are changing. Here’s who filed to run for them in 2026

Race for redrawn California’s 40th Congressional District is starting to take shape

Labor, voting rights groups intervene in Illinois voter data lawsuit

Mike Johnson’s Majority in Peril After Sudden Republican Death

Two Republicans fall off the ballot in gubernatorial, Senate contests

Polls

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Upcoming Events

Latest Insights

CA-40 House winner?

CA-40 House winner?

CA-40 House winner?

News

Orange County’s congressional seats are changing. Here’s who filed to run for them in 2026

Race for redrawn California’s 40th Congressional District is starting to take shape

Labor, voting rights groups intervene in Illinois voter data lawsuit

Mike Johnson’s Majority in Peril After Sudden Republican Death

Two Republicans fall off the ballot in gubernatorial, Senate contests

Polls

Related races

Los Angeles Mayor winner?

California Governor winner?

California Governor primary advancers? (Person)

California Governor primary: 1st place