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High Impact21d

Steve Hilton

79%

Steve Hilton is now at 79% and leads by 3.0 points in the California governor primary advancers race.

ActivePrimary ElectionDemocratic

Who will win the 2026 California Governor Primary?

Jul 2, 2026, 3:59am UTC, in 22 daysLast updated: Jun 10, 2026, 3:30 AM UTC

California Governor primary advancers? (Person)

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JUL 2, 2026

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Party selects its nominee.

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OddsCurrent Odds

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$8.1M

24h volume

$802.6K

X. Becerra100%

S. Hilton97%

T. Steyer3%

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November

TUE 3

California 2026 general election

Latest Insights

California Governor primary advancers? (Person)

21dHigh Impact

Steve Hilton is now at 79% and leads by 3.0 points in the California governor primary advancers race.

79%

California Governor primary advancers? (Person)

Fresh post-primary reporting shows Tom Steyer slipping behind the advance leaders, which matters because the market now reflects a much lower chance of him surviving California’s top-two cutoff.

12%24%

California Governor primary advancers? (Person)

Steyer’s odds jumped to 51% as late reporting shows him and Steve Hilton locked in a tighter battle for the second qualifying spot behind Xavier Becerra, making the California primary advance picture more tradable.

51%42%

News

AINews Summary

New Berkeley IGS/UC Berkeley–LA Times polling puts Republicans Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco on top in California’s 2026 governor primary. Democrats remain fragmented, with no one above 13% and a sizable undecided share, fueling talk that two Republicans could advance in the top-two system. Campaign messaging is increasingly centered on affordability and gas-price relief. The polling likely boosts perceived chances of Hilton and Bianco finishing first and second, while increasing concern about a Democratic vote-split. High undecideds and a tight cluster behind the leaders keep uncertainty elevated.

Articles

NYNew York Post3 months ago

Democrats blew it, now two Republicans could snatch Governor race

No Democrat tops 13% while the GOP contenders sit in the high teens.

NNewsweek3 months ago

Republicans Could Flip California in Nightmare Scenario for Democrats-Poll

New polling in California's gubernatorial race shows the Democratic field splintering while GOP candidates consolidate.

NYNew York Post3 months ago

Jon Stewart mocks selfish California Dems over crowded governor's race

Comedian Jon Stewart wasted little time Monday in addressing the elephant in the room when it comes to California Democrats having little to no strategy in a pivotal governor’s race.

CNCBS News3 months ago

Steve Hilton, Tom Steyer and Eric Swalwell leading California governor's race, new polls show

Two new polls have conservative commentator Steve Hilton, billionaire Tom Steyer and Rep. Eric Swalwell as the front-runners for California governor.

SCSanta Clarita Valley Signal3 months ago

Dan Walters | Gubernatorial Field Set; Now What?

After months of potential governors playing coy, dropping in and dropping out, we finally have a field of eight Democrats and two Republicans, none of whom registers more than 14% […]

NNewsweek3 months ago

Could California Have to Choose a Republican Governor? What Poll Shows

A new poll showed a tight race among leading candidates in the primary as lockout concerns loom for Democrats.

WEWashington Examiner3 months ago

California Democrats vying to be governor take on soaring gas prices

Two Democrats in California’s crowded gubernatorial race are calling for immediate action to bring down soaring fuel costs.

KKABC-TV3 months ago

CA governor's race: Democrat Tom Steyer lays out priorities during town hall tour stop in LA

Democratic gubernatorial candidate Tom Steyer met with Los Angeles-area voters on Saturday during a stop on his Shared Prosperity town hall tour.

TMThe Mercury News3 months ago

Walters: Now that we know who’s running for governor, here’s what happens next

'The jostling is not so much for first place on June 2 but for the No. 2 spot, since it will dictate' the Nov. 3 election

Polls

Polling Average

30%25%20%15%10%5%0%

22.8%

22.3%

19.6%

11.2%

7.4%

5.5%

S. Hilton

X. Becerra

T. Steyer

C. Bianco

K. Porter

M. Mahan

A. Villaraigosa

T. Thurmond

B. Yee

E. Swalwell

Date (Start - End)	Spread	Hilton	Becerra	Steyer	Bianco	Porter	Mahan	Villaraigosa	Thurmond	Yee	Swalwell
Polling Average	Hilton+0.5	22.8%	22.3%	19.6%	11.2%	7.4%	5.5%	2.3%	1.1%	0.0%	0.0%
SurveyUSAMay 28 - 31	Hilton+0.0	20.0%	17.0%	20.0%	11.0%	7.0%	6.0%	4.0%	2.0%	–	–
Emerson CollegeMay 27 - 28	Becerra+5.8	22.5%	28.4%	22.6%	11.8%	5.2%	4.9%	2.7%	0.6%	–	–
Public Policy PollingMay 27 - 28	Steyer+1.0	20.0%	18.0%	21.0%	14.0%	7.0%	7.0%	2.0%	–	–	–
McLaughlin & AssociatesMay 26 - 28	Hilton+0.0	25.0%	19.0%	25.0%	10.0%	7.0%	6.0%	–	–	–	–
Kreate StrategiesMay 27 - 27	Becerra+1.0	26.0%	27.0%	20.0%	9.0%	5.0%	4.0%	1.0%	–	–	–
David Binder ResearchMay 26 - 27	Hilton+1.0	27.0%	26.0%	22.0%	9.0%	8.0%	4.0%	–	–	–	–
University of Southern California/California State University Long Beach Center for Urban Politics and Policy/Cal Poly PomonaMay 23 - 26	Becerra+6.0	23.0%	29.0%	18.0%	11.0%	8.0%	4.0%	3.0%	–	–	–
University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental StudiesMay 19 - 24	Becerra+4.0	21.0%	25.0%	19.0%	11.0%	7.0%	4.0%	1.0%	1.0%	–	–
Global Strategy GroupMay 18 - 21	Hilton+3.0	22.0%	19.0%	19.0%	12.0%	8.0%	8.0%	2.0%	1.0%	–	–
Echelon InsightsMay 18 - 21	Hilton+7.0	25.0%	15.0%	18.0%	12.0%	7.0%	7.0%	1.0%	–	–	–
Public Policy Institute of CaliforniaMay 14 - 18	Becerra+3.0	20.0%	23.0%	15.0%	13.0%	12.0%	7.0%	5.0%	1.0%	–	–
EvitarusMay 14 - 16	Hilton+1.0	22.0%	21.0%	15.0%	10.0%	7.0%	4.0%	1.0%	1.0%	0.0%	0.0%