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Who will win the 2026 South Dakota Senate Primary?

Nov 7, 2026, 4:59am UTC, in 130 daysLast updated: Jun 30, 2026, 9:30 AM UTC

South Dakota Senate winner?

$7.9K

NOV 7, 2026

General Election

Voters choose the office holder.

R. Party

96.0%

D. Party

5.1%

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OddsCurrent Odds

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Total volume

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R. Party96%

D. Party5%

No chart data available yet.

source: Kalshi

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July

TUE 28

South Dakota 2026 primary runoff, if required

November

TUE 3

South Dakota 2026 general election

News

AINews Summary

Kristi Noem now looks unlikely to enter the South Dakota Senate race after being removed as Homeland Security secretary and shifted to a new Trump role. South Dakota also passed a new citizenship-challenge voting law, though it will not affect the June 2 primary. Republican messaging and turnout concerns could add some uncertainty, but the race still looks GOP-favored. Noem's apparent absence likely reduces the chance of a high-profile Republican primary challenge to Mike Rounds. The voting-law change and GOP messaging issues may add some uncertainty, but the overall race still appears Republican-leaning.

Articles

SFSioux Falls Argus Leader4 months ago

Noem could forgo her new federal role for a political race, but observers say it’s unlikely

Several South Dakota political insiders think Kristi Noem will stick with her new role in the Trump administration following her dismissal as U.S. Department of Homeland Security secretary.

IBInternational Business Times4 months ago

Markwayne Mullin's Government and Service History Explained As Trump Names Kristi Noem's Replacement

President Donald Trump announced that he will replace Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem with Oklahoma Republican Senator Markwayne Mullin.

NNewsweek4 months ago

Republican Departures From Congress Surge Ahead of 2026 Elections

More Republicans are not seeking re-election this year than at any point since 2012, according to data from Ballotpedia.

WEWashington Examiner4 months ago

Here are the dates to know for the 2026 midterm elections

Before November, voters will first weigh in during the primary season, when they will choose a candidate from each party to vote on.

ANAberdeen News4 months ago

South Dakota election officials can challenge voters' citizenship

South Dakota's new law allows individuals and election officials to challenge a voter's citizenship, citing election integrity.

CNCable News Network4 months ago

Republicans face a growing conundrum on the ‘Save America Act’

The GOP appears stuck between a rock and a hard place when it comes to the legislation the party has dubbed the “SAVE America Act.”

TAThe Atlantic4 months ago

Why Trump Soured on Kristi Noem

Congressional questions about contracts, ads, and extramarital sex ended her tenure.

WEWashington Examiner4 months ago

Kristi Noem could still enter South Dakota Senate race after DHS exit

Ousted Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem still has time to enter South Dakota’s 2026 Senate race.

AABC17News.com4 months ago

Trump ousts Noem as frustrations build among White House officials, GOP lawmakers

CNN By Priscilla Alvarez, Kristen Holmes, Annie Grayer, Lauren Fox, CNN (CNN) — President Donald Trump said Thursday on social media he was pushing Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem out of her position and would name Oklahoma Sen. Markwayne Mullin to replace her. Trump thanked Noem for her service, saying in his Truth Social post

Polls

Polling Average

60%50%40%30%20%10%0%

47%

31.4%

27.8%

M. Rounds

B. Bengs

J. Beaudion

Date (Start - End)	Spread	Rounds	Bengs	Beaudion
Polling Average	Rounds+15.6	47.0%	31.4%	27.8%
Public Policy PollingMay 29 - 30	Rounds+20.0	43.0%	23.0%	18.0%
Public Policy PollingMay 29 - 30	Rounds+25.0	56.0%	–	31.0%
Public Policy PollingMay 29 - 30	Rounds+4.0	44.0%	40.0%	–
Public Policy PollingFeb 17 - 18	Rounds+12.0	47.0%	35.0%	–
Public Policy PollingFeb 17 - 18	Rounds+17.0	49.0%	–	32.0%
Public Policy PollingNov 13 - 14	Rounds+13.0	44.0%	31.0%	–
Public Policy PollingNov 13 - 14	Rounds+22.0	52.0%	–	30.0%
Public Policy PollingJul 30 - 31	Rounds+13.0	41.0%	28.0%	–

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

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Who will win the 2026 South Dakota Senate Primary?

South Dakota Senate winner?

OddsCurrent Odds

Upcoming Events

News

Noem could forgo her new federal role for a political race, but observers say it’s unlikely

Markwayne Mullin's Government and Service History Explained As Trump Names Kristi Noem's Replacement

Republican Departures From Congress Surge Ahead of 2026 Elections

Here are the dates to know for the 2026 midterm elections

South Dakota election officials can challenge voters' citizenship

Republicans face a growing conundrum on the ‘Save America Act’

Why Trump Soured on Kristi Noem

Kristi Noem could still enter South Dakota Senate race after DHS exit

Trump ousts Noem as frustrations build among White House officials, GOP lawmakers

Polls

Related races

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Upcoming Events

News

Noem could forgo her new federal role for a political race, but observers say it’s unlikely

Markwayne Mullin's Government and Service History Explained As Trump Names Kristi Noem's Replacement

Republican Departures From Congress Surge Ahead of 2026 Elections

Here are the dates to know for the 2026 midterm elections

South Dakota election officials can challenge voters' citizenship

Republicans face a growing conundrum on the ‘Save America Act’

Why Trump Soured on Kristi Noem

Kristi Noem could still enter South Dakota Senate race after DHS exit

Trump ousts Noem as frustrations build among White House officials, GOP lawmakers

Polls

Related races

South Dakota Republican Governor nominee?

South Dakota Governor winner?

SD-AL House winner?

South Dakota Senate winner? (2028)