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NOV 7, 2026
General Election
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source: Kalshi
Kristi Noem is weighing a Senate run, and she could also choose to run for the open at-large House seat. That keeps the Republican field unsettled ahead of the March 31 filing deadline. Trump’s endorsement news does not provide any clear South Dakota signal. Noem’s possible entry adds uncertainty to the Republican field and could affect who runs for the open House seat. The overall market still looks Republican-leaning, but candidate lineup risk is higher.
Ousted Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem still has time to enter South Dakota’s 2026 Senate race.
Republicans hold a narrow majority in the House, and the party risks losing control of the chamber if Democrats net just a handful of seats.
New updates coming soon
We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.
