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NOV 7, 2026
General Election
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source: Kalshi
The biggest development is that Kristi Noem is weighing a 2026 Senate bid, but she may also return to the open at-large House race. That keeps the Republican field unsettled for now. The filing deadline is March 31, so decisions are coming soon. This adds uncertainty to the race because Noem’s decision could reshape the field. If she enters the House race, it could materially affect the Republican contest.
Ousted Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem still has time to enter South Dakota’s 2026 Senate race.
Republicans hold a narrow majority in the House, and the party risks losing control of the chamber if Democrats net just a handful of seats.
New updates coming soon
We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.
