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Who will win the 2026 Minnesota Senate Republican Primary?

Aug 12, 2026, 3:59am UTC, in 43 daysLast updated: Jun 30, 2026, 9:30 AM UTC

Minnesota Republican Senate nominee?

$75.5K

AUG 12, 2026

Primary Election

Party selects its nominee.

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OddsCurrent Odds

Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.

Total volume

$75.5K

24h volume

$625

M. Tafoya92%

A. Schwarze11%

M. York7%

No chart data available yet.

source: Kalshi

Upcoming Events

August

TUE 11

Minnesota 2026 primary

November

TUE 3

Minnesota 2026 general election

News

AINews Summary

Republicans are projecting confidence about expanding their Senate majority in 2026. The update is about the wider Senate map, not the Minnesota GOP nomination contest. No new Minnesota-specific nomination development was reported. This is broad GOP momentum talk, but it does not directly change the Minnesota nomination race. Market impact for this event looks limited and unclear.

Articles

FNFox News4 months ago

Republicans optimistic about Senate gains despite midterm headwinds

Midterm elections 2026 present high hurdles for Republicans defending Senate control amid inflation concerns and President Donald Trump's underwater approval ratings.

Polls

Polling Average

50%40%30%20%10%0%

42.9%

11.6%

5.0%

M. Tafoya

R. White

A. Schwarze

T. Weiler

D. Hann

Date (Start - End)	Spread	Tafoya	White	Schwarze	Weiler	Hann
Polling Average	Tafoya+31.3	42.9%	11.6%	5.0%	3.2%	3.0%
SurveyUSAJun 11 - 16	Tafoya+21.0	36.0%	15.0%	7.0%	7.0%	–
Quantus InsightsMay 6 - 9	Tafoya+42.9	51.8%	8.9%	4.1%	1.6%	–
Peak InsightsJan 31 - Feb 1	Tafoya+30.0	41.0%	11.0%	4.0%	1.0%	3.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Endorsements

Alycia Gruenhagen

Minnesota Republican Party

Minnesota Republican Party endorsed Alycia Gruenhagen for U.S. Senate.

Learn more

David Hann

State Rep. Duane Quam

State Rep. Duane Quam endorsed David Hann for U.S. Senate.

Learn more

Julia Coleman

fellow Republicans

Fellow Republicans endorsed Julia Coleman for her campaign.

Learn more

Fundraising

Total RaisedCash on Hand

Apr 29, 2026

$2.5M

$1.9M

$1.3M

$625K

M. Tafoya

A. Schwarze

D. Hann

T. Weiler

M. York

R. White

Candidate

Total Raised

Cash on Hand

Burn Rate (per month)

Last report

M. TafoyaMichele Tafoya

$2.04MContrib: $1.92M

$1.85MSpent: $187.0K

$12.5KLast period: $1.90M

APRIL QUARTERLY · Mar 31, 2026

A. SchwarzeAdam Schwarze

$1.10MContrib: $1.05M

$223.4KSpent: $879.4K

$58.6KLast period: $233.7K

APRIL QUARTERLY · Mar 31, 2026

D. HannDavid Hann

$133.5KContrib: $133.3K

$0Spent: $133.5K

$8.3KLast period: -$11.2K

TERMINATION REPORT · Apr 29, 2026

T. WeilerTom Weiler

$105.4KContrib: $52.3K

$50.7KSpent: $56.4K

$3.8KLast period: $23.2K

APRIL QUARTERLY · Mar 31, 2026

M. YorkMark York

$56.2KContrib: $56.2K

$10.7KSpent: $45.5K

$3.0KLast period: $56.2K

APRIL QUARTERLY · Mar 31, 2026

R. WhiteRoyce White

$0Contrib: $0

$0Spent: $0

$0Last period: $0

TERMINATION REPORT · Mar 31, 2025

Source: FEC

Who will win the 2026 Minnesota Senate Republican Primary?

Minnesota Republican Senate nominee?

OddsCurrent Odds

Upcoming Events

News

Republicans optimistic about Senate gains despite midterm headwinds

Polls

Endorsements

Fundraising

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Upcoming Events

News

Republicans optimistic about Senate gains despite midterm headwinds

Polls

Endorsements

Fundraising

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