$185.7K
NOV 7, 2026
General Election
Voters choose the office holder.
Deposit $20, get $50 on Polymarket
Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.
source: Kalshi
Bodnar’s Independent Senate price in Montana spiked from 0.16 to 0.21 over the past hour, then returned to 0.16, even as fresh reporting highlighted a new poll showing him little-known to many voters. Traders may want to watch whether the move was just noise or the start of a repricing ahead of the June 2 primary.
Steve Daines will not seek reelection, turning the Montana Senate race into an open seat. Kurt Alme has entered with endorsements from Donald Trump and Daines. The race has moved from safely Republican to lean Republican, with Seth Bodnar also in the field. Daines’ exit adds uncertainty and weakens the incumbent Republican position. Alme’s endorsements help Republicans, but the open seat likely makes the market less certain overall.
With endorsements already stacked high, Republican and former U.S. Attorney for Montana Kurt Alme filed for the U.S. Senate in the 2026 election on Wednesday, the day filing closed.In move that surprised even some political insiders, presumed Republican incumbent U.S. Sen. Steve Daines withdrew his ...
Montana U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme, who is also a Republican, entered the race shortly before the deadline.
Sen. Steve Daines, R-Montana, will not run for reelection in Montana, adding to the Republican turnover as Rep. Ryan Zinke also announced retirement plans this week from his House seat.
Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne
S. BodnarSeth BodnarSource: FEC
New updates coming soon
We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.
