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JUN 17, 2026Primary Election
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Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.
source: Kalshi
Trump has endorsed Kevin Hern in the Oklahoma Republican Senate race, giving him a major boost. Stephanie Bice has also ruled out a Senate run, leaving Hern with a clearer path. Hern was the first major Republican to enter the race for the open seat. The endorsement and Bice's exit both strengthen Hern's position and likely narrow the field. That should push market odds further toward Hern, though the race is still early.
The move, as other Republicans confirmed they would not run, all but assured Representative Kevin Hern would succeed Senator Markwayne Mullin.
President Donald Trump moved to clear the field in an Oklahoma primary race, endorsing Representative Kevin Hern just two days after Hern began his campaign for Senate.
Bice's decision paves the way for Rep. Kevin Hern (R-OK) to receive support from their House Republican colleagues.
The number of Republicans leaving the US House of Representatives after this term has reached a historic high, deepening concern in the conference over the chamber’s already razor-thin margins.
Leaning heavily on connections to President Donald Trump in his written announcement, Hern said: "Now more than ever, Oklahomans need to know they have a strong conservative leader in Washington."
House GOP Policy Chair Kevin Hern enters the race for Markwayne Mullin’s Senate seat, tapping Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio as he targets "radical left" policies.
The president’s choice of Senator Markwayne Mullin of Oklahoma to replace her at the Department of Homeland Security could trigger a cascade of aspirants for his seat.
Rep. Kevin Hern, R-Okla., will announce on Wednesday that he is running for Senate in Oklahoma, two sources familiar with his plans told NBC News
Rep. Kevin Hern (R-OK) has been calling senators to gather support for a possible campaign and is poised to make an announcement later this week.
Several South Dakota political insiders think Kristi Noem will stick with her new role in the Trump administration following her dismissal as U.S. Department of Homeland Security secretary.
Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne
K. HernKevin HernS. BiceStephanie Bice
J. BrecheenJosh Brecheen
R. MeinhardtRon MeinhardtN. HankinsNick HankinsSource: FEC
New updates coming soon
We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.
