Polling Average
50%40%30%20%10%0%
45.1%
39.5%
37.6%
37.5%
A. Moody
A. Vindman
H. Mujica
J. Jenkins
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$63.1K
NOV 3, 2026
General Election
Voters choose the office holder.
Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.
Total volume
$63.1K
24h volume
$455
source: Kalshi
Democrat Alexander Vindman reported $8.2 million raised for his Florida Senate bid, with $6 million cash on hand, as he takes on incumbent Ashley Moody. The race is still described as “solid Republican,” with a cited GOP voter-registration advantage. A Palm Beach County poll showed Democrats leading locally in the Senate race, though it’s not a statewide read. Vindman’s fundraising could modestly improve Democratic sentiment, but the “solid Republican” rating and cited registration advantage may keep the market tilted toward a GOP win. The county-level polling adds some uncertainty but is not statewide.
Florida's 2026 gubernatorial race is heating up with 44 candidates fighting for Gov. Ron DeSantis job.
Democrats’ advantage in the poll came after the party flipped a Republican-held seat Palm Beach County’s House District in March.
The numbers come as Florida Democrats feel growing optimism ahead of the midterms in the ruby-red Sunshine State.
In 2026, Democrats have flipped five state seats, with the two most recent secured Tuesday night in Republican stronghold Florida.
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U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff is pointing to the war with Iran to frame the 2026 race, dubbing it "Donald Trump's war."
New updates coming soon
We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.