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Which Party wins the 2026 Florida Senate Election?

Nov 7, 2026, 6:59am GMT+2, in 151 daysLast updated: Jun 9, 2026, 3:30 PM UTC

Florida Senate winner?

$89.9K

NOV 7, 2026

General Election

Voters choose the office holder.

R. Party

79.0%

D. Party

17.0%

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OddsCurrent Odds

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Total volume

$89.9K

24h volume

$316

R. Party79%

D. Party17%

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source: Kalshi

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Florida 2026 primary

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Florida 2026 general election

News

AINews Summary

Multiple University of North Florida polls show Republican Sen. Ashley Moody leading prospective Democratic challengers (including Alex/Alexander Vindman and Angie Nixon) by roughly seven to eight points, indicating a closer-than-recent-cycles race but still a GOP edge. The surveys also highlight many undecided voters and low voter familiarity with the Democratic candidates. In the background, the polling notes a sizable Republican voter registration advantage in Florida, reinforcing the GOP’s baseline strength. The polling data should modestly increase confidence in a Moody win versus currently named Democratic opponents, but the single-digit margin and large undecided share may keep market pricing from moving to a near-lock. Overall impact is mildly pro-Republican/Moody while still signaling meaningful uncertainty.

Articles

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UNU.S. News & World Report3 months ago

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Polls

Polling Average

60%50%40%30%20%10%0%

46.1%

41.5%

37.6%

37.5%

A. Moody

A. Vindman

H. Mujica

J. Jenkins

Date (Start - End)	Spread	Moody	Vindman	Mujica	Jenkins
Polling Average	Moody+4.7	46.1%	41.5%	37.6%	37.5%
Global Strategy GroupMay 18 - 21	Moody+3.0	46.0%	43.0%	–	–
Change ResearchMay 13 - 16	Vindman+2.0	45.0%	47.0%	–	–
Cherry CommunicationsMay 1 - 9	Moody+8.0	48.0%	40.0%	–	–
Stetson University Center for Public Opinion ResearchMar 25 - Apr 13	Moody+7.0	49.0%	42.0%	–	–
Echelon InsightsApr 3 - 9	Moody+7.0	50.0%	43.0%	–	–
MDW CommunicationsMar 27 - Apr 3	Moody+1.2	43.4%	42.2%	–	–
Public Policy PollingApr 2 - 3	Moody+3.0	43.0%	40.0%	–	–
Emerson CollegeMar 29 - 31	Moody+7.7	45.3%	–	37.6%	–
Emerson CollegeMar 29 - 31	Moody+7.9	45.9%	38.0%	–	–
University of North Florida Public Opinion Research LabFeb 21 - Mar 2	Moody+7.0	45.0%	38.0%	–	–
University of North Florida Public Opinion Research LabOct 15 - 25	Moody+11.0	49.0%	–	–	38.0%
The Tyson GroupOct 1 - 3	Moody+7.0	44.0%	–	–	37.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

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Which Party wins the 2026 Florida Senate Election?

Florida Senate winner?

OddsCurrent Odds

Upcoming Events

News

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As Trump keeps Texas guessing, neither Cornyn nor Paxton backs down from Republican Senate runoff

Democrats’ Chances of Defeating Republicans To Flip Florida: New Poll

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AP Decision Notes: What to Expect in Arkansas' State Primaries

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