$119.8K
JUN 17, 2026Primary Election
Party selects its nominee.
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Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.
source: Kalshi
Kyle Sweetser surged to 94% while Dakarai Larriett dropped to 7%, and AP says Larriett and Everett Wess advanced to a runoff. That kind of sharp repricing in an open primary can change how traders price the nominee path and runoff risk.
Sweetser’s market price moved up sharply over the last 24 hours, and fresh local coverage ahead of the May 19 primary is reinforcing his frontrunner status. That makes the nominee market more concentrated around Sweetser and raises the bar for challengers to catch him.
Doug Jones reported $324,637 raised in February, bringing his total to $1.3 million since entering the race. Other Democratic candidates posted much smaller totals. A separate challenge to Tuberville’s Alabama residency has also surfaced, but it has already been dismissed once by the Alabama GOP committee. Jones’s fundraising is solid but trails Tuberville’s much larger war chest, which may keep him from gaining much ground. The residency challenge adds some uncertainty around the broader race, but its direct effect on this Democratic nomination market is unclear.
Tuberville defeated Jones in Alabama's 2020 U.S. Senate race and is poised to face him in November's general election.
Tuberville outraised Jones by more than a 2-to-1 margin in January.
Ken McFeeters said he will drop out of the race if Tuberville provides documents showing he meets residency requirements.
K. SweetserKyle Sweetser
D. LarriettDakarai Larriett
M. WheelerMark WheelerSource: FEC
New updates coming soon
We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.
