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NOV 7, 2026
General Election
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source: Kalshi
Frederick Haynes III won the Democratic primary and will be the party’s nominee in Texas’s 30th District. Republicans are still deciding their nominee in a runoff. Reported high Democratic turnout and the district’s Democratic lean point to a Democratic advantage. The news appears to favor Democrats, since they have already nominated the candidate in a historically Democratic district. The Republican side is still unsettled, but the district remains described as a Democratic stronghold.
With Texas’ 30th District safely Democratic, Frederick Haynes III is poised for Congress after winning the primary to replace Crockett, who lost her Senate primary bid.
Jasmine Crockett ends her Texas Senate bid after losing to James Talarico in the Democratic primary, amid voter confusion and record turnout.
Despite the open seat and the redrawn map, Democrats still account for at least three-quarters of the electorate in District 30.
Jasmine Crockett lost the 2026 Democratic Texas Senate election to James Talarico, so will she remain in Congress as a represetative?
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We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.