$4.6M
NOV 8, 2026
General Election
Voters choose the office holder.
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Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.
Total volume
$4.6M
24h volume
$40.3K
source: Kalshi
Ken Paxton’s runoff win over John Cornyn has been followed by a sharp Texas Senate repricing, with Republicans now around 60% and Democrats about 44%. That puts the general-election market back in play and gives traders a fresh read on how much Paxton’s nomination changes November odds.
James Talarico has locked up the Texas Democratic Senate nomination. On the Republican side, John Cornyn and Ken Paxton are still in the race, with the May 26 runoff set to decide the nominee. Trump has not endorsed either candidate yet, keeping the GOP contest unsettled. Talarico’s nomination clarifies the Democratic side, while the GOP runoff and pending Trump endorsement keep the race uncertain. The market may stay focused on which Republican gains the edge.
President Donald Trump did not give a Texas endorsement, but said he wants the Senate primary to end soon. What did he say about Rep. James Talarico?
State Rep. James Talarico wins Texas Democratic Senate primary, defeating Rep. Jasmine Crockett, to face GOP nominee. The rising star seeks to become first Democrat to win since 1988.
Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton compete for President Donald Trump’s endorsement ahead of a high-stakes Texas Republican runoff election.
Amid signs that Republicans may lose some of the Latino support that the party picked up in 2024, grassroots organizations are stepping in to boost GOP Senate candidates in key midterm races.
President Donald Trump has said he plans to endorse one of the candidates in the Republican Senate runoff in Texas, but Tuesday is the last chance for either to…
The National Republican Congressional Committee debuted its latest class of recruits by embracing Trump’s MAGA movement.
Business groups have poured $1.6 million into the campaign, citing affordability concerns, as Gov. Healey calls the tax cut counterproductive to economic success.
Democratic officials who think the party can just dump Kamala Harris are going to discover the effects of their embrace of DEI.
Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne
New updates coming soon
We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.