$23.9K
NOV 7, 2026
General Election
Voters choose the office holder.
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Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.
Total volume
$23.9K
24h volume
$148
source: Kalshi
Kalshi’s Republican-win market for TX-23 rose from 73% earlier this week to 75% now, with a brief intraday push to 80%; recent coverage still frames the race as unsettled but reinforces the district’s Republican lean after Gonzales exited and Herrera became the nominee. ([texastribune.org](https://www.texastribune.org/2026/03/12/brandon-herrera-democrats-texas-23rd-congressional-district-tony-gonzales/?utm_source=openai))
Multiple reports say Rep. Tony Gonzales has faced mounting pressure from House GOP leaders to withdraw from the TX-23 race amid a House Ethics Committee investigation tied to allegations of misconduct and an admitted affair with a former aide. Gonzales had been headed to a GOP primary runoff against challenger Brandon Herrera. Gonzales subsequently announced he will not seek re-election, positioning Herrera to become the Republican nominee for the district. Gonzales dropping out removes an incumbent Republican and replaces him with a likely nominee (Herrera) shaped by a scandal-driven primary, increasing uncertainty around GOP prospects in TX-23. The net effect on the party-winner market is unclear from these summaries alone, but volatility and reassessment of the Republican vs. Democratic chances would be expected.
President Donald Trump endorses Republican Brandon Herrera for Texas’ 23rd Congressional District following the sudden withdrawal of incumbent Tony Gonzales due to a personal scandal.
AUSTIN, Texas (AP) — The abrupt decision by U.S. Rep. Tony Gonzales to not seek reelection clears the path for a self-described gun rights “absolutist” to secure the Republican nomination in a sprawling Texas congressional district.
Trump endorses Brandon Herrera for Texas' 23rd Congressional District after primary rival Tony Gonzales exits race amid House Ethics investigation into admitted affair.
Democrats have been quick to resurface statements that can be found on activist Brandon Herrera's YouTube channel, including Nazi references.
Brandon Herrera, known as TheAKGuy, is now the presumed nominee in Texas' 23rd Congressional district.
Brendan Herrera, 30, originally gained notoriety by posting videos of himself shooting weapons, calling himself “The AK Guy.”
Brandon Herrera’s controversial online presence and hardline politics could open another opportunity for House Democrats in a deep-red district.
What had been a safe G.O.P. seat was looking more attainable for Democrats after Representative Tony Gonzales bowed out in favor of a hard-right candidate.
AUSTIN, Texas (AP) — The abrupt decision by U.S. Rep. Tony Gonzales to not seek reelection clears the path for a self-described gun rights “absolutist” to…
A gun-rights YouTuber in Texas who goes by the “AK Guy” on social media has a clear path to the GOP nomination for Congress after Republican Rep.
Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne
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We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.