$715.00
NOV 7, 2026
General Election
Voters choose the office holder.
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Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.
Total volume
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source: Kalshi
Dan Crenshaw lost the Republican primary to Steve Toth, a 16-point upset. Ted Cruz backed Toth, and reports say redistricting and Trump’s lack of endorsement hurt Crenshaw. The result points to a more hardline GOP nominee in TX-02. The GOP side now looks more likely to nominate Toth, which may shift the market toward the Republican nominee. The primary upset also adds some uncertainty about how the district will perform in the general election.
GOP Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas has endorsed Steve Toth, a candidate challenging Rep. Dan Crenshaw in Texas' 2nd Congressional District Republican primary.
Dan Crenshaw lost to Steve Toth after failing to secure President Donald Trump's endorsement ahead of the primary.
Republican Rep. Dan Crenshaw's, R-Texas, primary defeat underscores the importance of staying closely connected to home district constituents, Rep. Beth Van Duyne, R-Texas, said Wednesday on Newsmax.
Dan Crenshaw’s Texas district was drastically changed as the GOP tried to gain more congressional seats.
The first round of primary elections is showing how this year’s midterms will be taking place on shifting political ground for incumbents.
New updates coming soon
We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.