$715.00
NOV 7, 2026
General Election
Voters choose the office holder.
Deposit $20, get $50 on Polymarket
Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.
Total volume
$715
24h volume
$0
source: Kalshi
Dan Crenshaw lost the Republican primary to Steve Toth by 16 points, after Ted Cruz backed Toth. The result shows a major GOP shakeup in Texas's 2nd District. It may change the general-election outlook, but the final effect is still unclear. Crenshaw's primary loss likely shifts the Republican nominee and may keep the seat in play. The endorsement and primary result suggest GOP momentum, but the general-election effect is still uncertain.
GOP Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas has endorsed Steve Toth, a candidate challenging Rep. Dan Crenshaw in Texas' 2nd Congressional District Republican primary.
Dan Crenshaw lost to Steve Toth after failing to secure President Donald Trump's endorsement ahead of the primary.
Republican Rep. Dan Crenshaw's, R-Texas, primary defeat underscores the importance of staying closely connected to home district constituents, Rep. Beth Van Duyne, R-Texas, said Wednesday on Newsmax.
Dan Crenshaw’s Texas district was drastically changed as the GOP tried to gain more congressional seats.
The first round of primary elections is showing how this year’s midterms will be taking place on shifting political ground for incumbents.
New updates coming soon
We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.