Prediction Edge
Republican
Tom Cotton

Overview

Current roleU.S. Senator

PartyRepublican

Political ideologyConservative Republican

Age49 years old (May 13, 1977)

GenderMale

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LocationArkansas

BackgroundPolitician

EducationHarvard University (A.B.)

Notable personal detailsThomas Bryant “Tom” Cotton is a Republican U.S. Senator from Arkansas, serving in the Senate since 2015 after one term in the U.S. House of Representatives (2013–2015). He graduated from Harvard University and Harvard Law School, and later served as a U.S. Army infantry officer with deployments to Iraq and Afghanistan, including service with the 101st Airborne and The Old Guard at Arlington National Cemetery. He has worked in law and as a management consultant, and has held Senate leadership roles including Chair of the Senate Republican Conference and Chair of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence (both beginning January 3, 2025).

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Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

Tom Cotton has supported major tax-cutting legislation and proposals to reduce or eliminate taxes such as repealing the Affordable Care Act individual mandate and advocating for tax relief for families and businesses; he has also cosponsored measures to repeal the federal estate (death) tax. He has introduced or supported targeted tax measures aimed at foreign entities or elite institutions (for example, legislation to tax large university endowments and to block certain tax credits for Chinese entities) while consistently backing Republican tax-cut priorities.

Healthcare

Opposes the Affordable Care Act and has repeatedly called for its repeal and replacement with market-centered reforms; supports policies such as expanding Health Savings Accounts and reducing federal mandates while sponsoring legislation that protects coverage for pre-existing conditions within a private-market framework.

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Immigration & Border

Supports strict immigration enforcement and border security measures, including construction of a border wall, expedited removals and deportations, reduced legal immigration levels, restrictions on birthright citizenship, and limits on asylum/refugee admissions. Has sponsored legislation to reduce legal immigration, end birthright citizenship for children of unlawful entrants, and tighten penalties and removal for noncitizens who commit crimes.

Abortion & Reproductive Rights

Tom Cotton is a pro-life U.S. Senator who has repeatedly called Roe v. Wade a mistake and supports laws to restrict abortion, including limits on late-term procedures and tighter controls on chemical abortion drugs. He has sponsored and supported pro-life legislation and praised the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision returning abortion policy to the states.

Climate & Energy

Advocates accelerating domestic energy production and innovation, securing critical mineral supply chains, and reducing regulatory barriers to energy projects while emphasizing grid reliability and lower consumer energy costs. Sponsors legislation to streamline energy projects, restrict certain firms from DOE contracts for national-security reasons, and promote domestic lithium and battery supply chains. Positions favor market and security-focused energy policy over aggressive emissions-target or international climate agreements.

Public Safety & Guns

Opposes broad federal gun-control measures like universal background checks and favors tougher criminal penalties and stronger law-enforcement responses to gun crime. Supports expanded concealed-carry rights for certain officials and legislation easing access to some firearm accessories for law-abiding owners. Emphasizes enforcement and sentencing against illegal gun possession rather than new restrictions on lawful gun owners.

News

AINews Summary
Last updatedMar 14, 2026

Tom Cotton easily won the Arkansas Republican primary and is now headed to a November general election against Democratic nominee Hallie Shoffner. Shoffner, a first-time candidate, won her party’s primary and is campaigning on issues like health and food security, while Cotton is running with significant financial backing and support from prominent Republicans. On policy, Cotton is drawing attention for backing strict immigration enforcement and sponsoring legislation to reduce green cards and cap refugee admissions.

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Polls

Grayhouse
80%60%40%20%0%
58%
Tom Cotton
T. Cotton
Date (Start - End)SpreadShare
GrayhouseFeb 9, 2026
58.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Fundraising

Latest report: Cycle 2026
Total raisedCash on hand
$9.8M
$7.3M
$4.9M
$2.4M
$0

2024

2026

Latest
Year
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate

Cycle 2024

$2.5M
$7.5M
$2.8M
$117.6K

Cycle 2026

$5.4M
$9.8M
$3.1M
$204.7K

Source: FEC

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

  • Endorsements