Prediction Edge
Republican
Steve Toth

Overview

Current roleFormer State Senator

PartyRepublican

Political ideologyConservative Republican

Age65 years old (Nov 29, 1960)

GenderMale

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LocationTexas

BackgroundPolitician

Notable personal detailsSteven Hixson Toth is an American politician, small business owner, and ordained pastor who has served in the Texas House of Representatives for District 15 (The Woodlands/South Montgomery County area). He was first elected in 2012, returned to the House in 2018, and has served on the Appropriations Committee. He has also run for U.S. House in Texas’s 2nd Congressional District.

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Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

Supports limited government, tax relief and pro-taxpayer policies, and favors protectionist tariffs to defend U.S. industry while opposing expanded government spending. Campaign materials emphasize empowering people and limiting government; fiscal ratings from conservative taxpayer groups rate him highly.

Healthcare

The candidate opposes expansion of the Affordable Care Act/Medicaid and has argued that Obamacare and Medicaid expansion are harmful to employment and state finances. His public record includes sponsoring and supporting restrictive healthcare-related measures such as limits on abortion medication access.

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Immigration & Border

Supports aggressive border enforcement and measures to reduce immigration, including finishing the border wall, closing the southern border, and legislative changes to end birthright citizenship; frames immigration as a security threat and calls for stronger state action against illegal crossings.

Abortion & Reproductive Rights

The candidate supports strict abortion restrictions and has sponsored and voted for legislation to ban or heavily limit abortion (including heartbeat/6-week and medication-abortion restrictions) and to impose criminal penalties or reporting requirements on providers.

Climate & Energy

Supports energy independence and limited government intervention on energy-related matters; has sponsored legislation to prohibit financial institutions and businesses from using ESG or other value-based criteria. Positions emphasize protecting traditional energy interests and opposing policies that favor environmental, social, or governance standards in finance rather than advancing aggressive emissions-reduction or Green New Deal–style policies.

Public Safety & Guns

Steve Toth strongly supports Second Amendment rights, has advocated blocking federal gun restrictions, and backs policies favorable to gun owners (including constitutional carry). He also emphasizes backing law enforcement and has sponsored legislation to prevent state enforcement of prospective federal gun-control measures.

News

AINews Summary
Last updatedMar 14, 2026

Steve Toth, a Texas state representative, defeated Rep. Dan Crenshaw in the Republican primary for Texas’s 2nd Congressional District, in a major upset. Toth ran as a more hardline MAGA-aligned candidate and was backed by Sen. Ted Cruz and conservative groups, overcoming Crenshaw’s fundraising edge. Because the district is heavily Republican, Toth is now expected to be favored in the general election.

house.texas.gov+65

Polls

TX-02 Republican nominee?
Polling Average
60%50%40%30%20%10%0%
19%
47%
Steve Toth
S. Toth
Dan Crenshaw
D. Crenshaw
Martin Etwop
M. Etwop
Date (Start - End)SpreadTothCrenshawEtwop
Polling Average
Crenshaw+28.0
19.0%47.0%1.0%
Meeting Street InsightsOct 21 - 23
Crenshaw+28.0
19.0%47.0%1.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Endorsements

TX-02 Republican nominee?

Endorsers of Steve Toth for TX-02 Republican nominee?

South Carolina Citizens for Life

Public endorsement

South Carolina Citizens for Life endorsed Steve Toth in TX-02.

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Young Republicans

Public figure

Young Republicans endorsed Steve Toth for U.S. Congress.

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Ted Cruz

Public figure

Ted Cruz endorsed Steve Toth in the 2026 Texas Republican primary for the U.S. House.

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Representative Nate Schatzline

Elected official

Representative Nate Schatzline endorsed Steve Toth for Congress.

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Senator Ted Cruz

Elected official

Senator Ted Cruz endorsed Steve Toth for Congress.

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Fundraising

Latest report: Cycle 2026
Total raisedCash on hand
$824.5K
$618.3K
$412.2K
$206.1K
$0

2026

Latest
Year
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate

Cycle 2026

$824.5K
$152.9K
$671.5K
$37.3K

Source: FEC