Prediction Edge
Republican
Paul Renner

Overview

Current roleFormer State Representative

PartyRepublican

Political ideologyConservative Republican

Age59 years old (Mar 21, 1967)

GenderMale

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LocationFlorida

BackgroundAttorney

EducationDavidson College — B.A., History (1989)

Notable personal detailsPaul Marvin Renner is an American attorney and Republican politician who served as Speaker of the Florida House of Representatives from 2022 to 2024 and previously represented District 24 (2015–2022) and District 19 (2022–2024) in the Florida House. He is a retired U.S. Navy commander with deployments including Operation Desert Storm (1991) and Operation Enduring Freedom (2011). Renner earned a B.A. in History from Davidson College and a J.D. from the University of Florida.

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Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

Paul Renner’s campaign emphasizes immediate property tax relief, proposing an immediate rollback of property taxes to 2024 levels, caps on future tax growth tied to incomes, and rules making new local taxes harder to enact. His record as Florida House Speaker is presented as supporting large tax cuts and spending reductions and continued reforms to lower insurance and litigation-driven costs.

Healthcare

Paul Renner’s health platform calls for repealing the Affordable Care Act and returning healthcare authority to states while prohibiting vaccine mandates and protecting parental consent for medical interventions on minors. His plan emphasizes medical freedom, reduced federal regulation, and market-based patient choice while also proposing preventive and ‘whole health’ initiatives and expanded access to integrative therapies through public programs.

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Immigration & Border

Paul Renner advocates for stronger immigration enforcement and tougher border-related measures, including arresting and removing illegal immigrants involved in trafficking, supporting detention capacity for migrants, and calling for restrictions such as pausing certain work visas (H-1B). He frames immigration as needing to prioritize assimilation and American workers while emphasizing coordination with federal authorities on removals and enforcement.

Abortion & Reproductive Rights

Paul Renner has supported restrictive abortion policies in Florida, including backing the six-week abortion limit and opposing a constitutional amendment that would restore abortion access up to fetal viability. He has financially supported efforts to defeat ballot efforts to expand abortion rights and publicly criticized language in the amendment as too broad or ill-defined.

Climate & Energy

Supports conservation and funding for water quality, the Everglades, and the Florida Wildlife Corridor while opposing aggressive, politically driven timelines for rapid transitions away from fossil fuels; favors fuel flexibility (including natural gas and nuclear) and ensuring reliable, low-cost electricity. Criticizes ESG-driven pressures on energy companies and emphasizes market-driven or utility-centered approaches to energy policy rather than mandates.

Public Safety & Guns

Paul Renner supports expanding gun-carry rights (including permitless/"constitutional carry") while emphasizing backing law enforcement and public safety. His campaign and legislative record describe efforts to remove concealed-carry permitting requirements and uphold Second Amendment rights alongside support for police and crime reduction measures.

Polls

Florida Republican Governor nominee?
Polling Average
50%40%30%20%10%0%
39.9%
22.0%
5.3%
Paul Renner
P. Renner
Byron Donalds
B. Donalds
Casey DeSantis
C. DeSantis
Jay Collins
J. Collins
Wilton Simpson
W. Simpson
Charles Burkett
C. Burkett
Date (Start - End)SpreadRennerDonaldsDeSantisCollinsSimpsonBurkett
Polling Average
Donalds+36.6
3.3%39.9%22.0%5.3%3.1%0.4%
The Public Sentiment InstituteJun 8 - 9
Donalds+33.4
3.9%37.3%11.0%
Change ResearchMay 13 - 16
Donalds+45.0
3.0%48.0%8.0%
Fabrizio, Lee & AssociatesApr 26 - 30
Donalds+52.0
2.0%54.0%7.0%
Stetson University Center for Public Opinion ResearchMar 25 - Apr 13
Donalds+31.0
7.0%38.0%6.0%
Tarrance GroupMar 30 - Apr 2
Donalds+47.0
3.0%50.0%6.0%
Emerson CollegeMar 29 - 31
Donalds+41.5
2.0%43.5%6.7%4.3%0.5%
Emerson CollegeMar 29 - 31
Donalds+43.7
2.7%46.4%4.1%0.3%
The American PromiseFeb 23 - 26
Donalds+42.0
2.0%44.0%4.0%
University of North Florida Public Opinion Research LabFeb 16 - 20
Donalds+28.0
0.0%28.0%24.0%3.0%
University of North Florida Public Opinion Research LabFeb 16 - 20
Donalds+30.0
1.0%31.0%4.0%
Targoz Market ResearchFeb 13 - 16
Donalds+24.0
9.0%33.0%15.0%
Mason-Dixon Polling & StrategyJan 8 - 13
Donalds+33.0
4.0%37.0%7.0%
Fabrizio, Lee & AssociatesJan 4 - 6
Donalds+38.0
1.0%39.0%26.0%
Fabrizio, Lee & AssociatesJan 4 - 6
Donalds+42.0
3.0%45.0%6.0%
Fabrizio, Lee & AssociatesJan 4 - 6
Donalds+43.0
4.0%47.0%
The American PromiseDec 8 - 9
Donalds+37.0
1.0%38.0%9.0%
The American PromiseNov 17 - 19
Donalds+41.0
2.0%43.0%1.0%
Victory InsightsNov 11 - 13
Donalds+42.3
2.7%45.0%1.2%
St. Pete PollsOct 13 - 15
Donalds+36.5
2.7%39.2%3.7%
Targoz Market ResearchSep 16 - 18
DeSantis+19.0
7.0%23.0%26.0%2.0%2.0%
Targoz Market ResearchSep 16 - 18
Donalds+20.0
9.0%29.0%
The Tyson GroupSep 4 - 5
Donalds+38.0
2.0%40.0%2.0%
St. Pete PollsJul 8 - 10
Donalds+40.7
2.9%43.6%2.1%4.1%
St. Pete PollsJul 8 - 10
Donalds+32.7
2.2%34.9%27.4%3.1%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

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