Prediction Edge
RepublicanTrump Endorsed
Mike Lawler

Overview

Current roleU.S. Representative

PartyRepublican

Political ideologyModerate Republican

Age39 years old (Sep 9, 1986)

GenderMale

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LocationNew York

BackgroundU.S. Representative

EducationManhattan College (B.A., 2009; accounting and finance)

Notable personal detailsMichael Vincent Lawler is a Republican U.S. Representative for New York’s 17th Congressional District, first elected in 2022 and serving since January 3, 2023. He previously served in the New York State Assembly (97th District) and held local and party leadership roles including Deputy Supervisor of the Town of Orangetown and Executive Director of the New York Republican State Committee. He graduated from Manhattan College with degrees in accounting and finance.

SourcesShow

Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

Supports lowering taxes for families and preserving/expanding elements of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act while backing targeted tax relief for middle- and working-class taxpayers (including restoring higher SALT deductions and expanding the child tax credit). Advocates tax cuts and regulatory relief as tools to reduce costs and improve affordability.

Healthcare

Mike Lawler has supported major Republican changes to federal health programs, voting for legislation that included large Medicaid spending reductions and criticizing the Affordable Care Act while endorsing GOP reforms. He has also said the ACA system is not working and pushed for reforms rather than preserving current subsidy structures unchanged.

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Immigration & Border

Supports stronger border security and enforcement as a first priority while also backing reforms to legal immigration that expand merit-based pathways (including H-1B visas) to address workforce needs. Has voted for enforcement-focused immigration measures in the House and publicly argues border security must be addressed before legal-immigration reform.

Abortion & Reproductive Rights

The candidate states he is personally pro-life but supports legal exceptions for rape, incest, and when the mother’s life is at risk, opposes a federal abortion ban, and has described support for limits on abortion earlier in pregnancy (around 13 weeks). He has also emphasized protecting access to IVF and contraception and opposed restrictions on mifepristone.

Climate & Energy

Supports an “all-of-the-above” energy approach that includes expanded domestic fossil fuel production (notably natural gas) alongside renewables, and has backed legislation and votes that limit or roll back aggressive federal climate regulations while participating in bipartisan climate forums. Emphasizes energy affordability and reliability over mandatory rapid phase-outs of fossil fuels.

Public Safety & Guns

Supports Second Amendment rights and opposes broad federal assault-weapons bans while backing targeted measures to keep guns out of dangerous hands, such as red-flag laws with due process and bans on ghost/undetectable guns; has sponsored legislation to extend the Undetectable Firearms Act and emphasizes enforcement and prosecution of gun crimes.

Polls

New York Republican Governor nominee?
Polling Average
60%50%40%30%20%10%0%
15.9%
46.8%
11.1%
Mike Lawler
M. Lawler
Elise Stefanik
E. Stefanik
Bruce Blakeman
B. Blakeman
Date (Start - End)SpreadLawlerStefanikBlakeman
Polling Average
Stefanik+30.9
15.9%46.8%11.1%
Siena CollegeJun 23 - 26
Stefanik+17.0
18.0%35.0%7.0%
co/efficientJun 18 - 20
Stefanik+56.0
8.0%64.0%6.0%
Siena CollegeMay 12 - 15
Stefanik+13.0
22.0%35.0%11.0%
co/efficientMay 1 - 2
Stefanik+47.0
9.0%56.0%8.0%
GrayhouseApr 22 - 24
Stefanik+37.0
7.0%44.0%5.0%
Siena CollegeApr 14 - 16
Blakeman+6.0
22.0%28.0%
Siena CollegeMar 2 - 6
Lawler+12.0
25.0%13.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Endorsements

New York Republican Governor nominee?

Endorsers of Mike Lawler for New York Republican Governor nominee?

Donald Trump

Public figure

Donald Trump endorsed Mike Lawler for reelection to the U.S. House.

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Fundraising

Latest report: Cycle 2026
Total raisedCash on hand
$8.4M
$6.3M
$4.2M
$2.1M
$0

2022

2024

2026

Latest
Year
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate

Cycle 2022

$1.6M
$38.5K
$1.5M
$63.1K

Cycle 2024

$8.4M
$169.4K
$8.3M
$344.0K

Cycle 2026

$6.7M
$4.2M
$2.7M
$177.5K

Source: FEC

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

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