Prediction Edge
Republican
Jim Desmond

Overview

Current roleCommissioner

PartyRepublican

Political ideologyConservative Republican

GenderMale

LocationCalifornia

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BackgroundPolitician

EducationSan Diego State University — B.S., Electrical Engineering (1985)

Notable personal detailsJim Desmond is an American politician and retired aviator who has served on the San Diego County Board of Supervisors (District 5) since 2019. He previously served as mayor of San Marcos, California (2006–2018) and as a San Marcos city council member (2004–2006). He is a U.S. Navy veteran and worked as a Delta Air Lines pilot and captain for more than three decades. Desmond is a Republican candidate for U.S. House in California’s 48th Congressional District in the 2026 election cycle.

SourcesShow

Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

Supports lower taxes and opposes new or increased local taxes and tax measures; argues the county has a spending problem rather than a revenue shortfall and favors reducing or restraining spending instead of raising taxes.

Healthcare

Jim Desmond has prioritized expanding and improving behavioral and mental-health services at the county level, including supporting construction of a psychiatric facility in Oceanside and authoring board letters to expand behavioral-health court and community behavioral-health initiatives. Public materials and news coverage document actions on county safety-net and behavioral health programs but do not provide a clear statement of his position on federal healthcare policy (e.g., ACA, Medicare, public option, or Medicare for All).

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Immigration & Border

Supports stronger border security and enforcement, opposes local policies that limit cooperation with federal immigration authorities, and has called the migration situation in San Diego a crisis that strains local resources. Advocates restricting local assistance to migrants and has sought to repeal county limits on helping federal immigration enforcement while requesting more federal support and resources for handling migrant flows.

Abortion & Reproductive Rights

Jim Desmond voted against San Diego County Board measures supporting a state constitutional amendment to enshrine abortion rights (California Proposition 1) and has publicly opposed that measure. His record shows opposition to formal local endorsement of codifying reproductive rights, consistent with favoring restrictions rather than protecting unrestricted access statewide.

Climate & Energy

Jim Desmond has made statements that express skepticism about the human role in climate change while also participating in county actions related to decarbonization and opposing offshore drilling near San Diego’s coast. His public record includes votes and statements that both question aggressive climate policy and support local measures addressing energy/shoreline risks, producing an overall mixed or unclear policy pattern on climate and energy.

Public Safety & Guns

Supports law enforcement and increased public-safety funding and has opposed county-level gun-safety measures such as a ghost-gun ordinance and a county gun-violence prevention study; emphasizes addressing mental health as the focus of reducing gun violence rather than new local regulations. Campaign materials and endorsements highlight his alignment with sheriff and police associations and a priority on holding criminals accountable.

Polls

CA-48 primary: first place
Polling Average
30%20%10%0%
27%
11.3%
10.7%
Jim Desmond
J. Desmond
Ammar Campa-Najjar
A. Campa-Najjar
Kevin O'Neil
K. O'Neil
Mike Schaefer
M. Schaefer
Eric Shaw
E. Shaw
Ferguson Porter
F. Porter
Stephen Clemons
S. Clemons
Luis Reyna
L. Reyna
Date (Start - End)SpreadDesmondCampa-NajjarO'NeilSchaeferShawPorterClemonsReyna
Polling Average
Desmond+15.7
27.0%11.3%10.7%4.5%2.0%1.0%0.5%0.0%
SurveyUSAMay 8 - 14
Desmond+19.0
29.0%9.0%10.0%3.0%2.0%1.0%0.0%
Tulchin ResearchApr 27 - 30
Desmond+14.0
27.0%13.0%9.0%
SurveyUSAApr 14 - 19
Desmond+12.0
25.0%12.0%13.0%6.0%2.0%1.0%1.0%0.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Fundraising

Latest report: Cycle 2026
Total raisedCash on hand
$1.9M
$1.4M
$952.3K
$476.2K
$0

2026

Latest
Year
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate

Cycle 2026

$1.9M
$1.1M
$815.0K
$47.9K

Source: FEC

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

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