Prediction Edge
Republican
Elise Stefanik

Overview

Current roleU.S. Representative

PartyRepublican

Political ideologyTrump-aligned Republican

Age41 years old (Jul 2, 1984)

GenderFemale

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LocationNew York

BackgroundPolitician

EducationHarvard University (BA)

Notable personal detailsElise Marie Stefanik is a Republican politician who has represented New York’s 21st Congressional District in the U.S. House of Representatives since 2015. She served as chair of the House Republican Conference from 2021 to 2025 and has served on the House Armed Services Committee and other key committees. Stefanik is a Harvard University graduate and previously worked in Republican politics and government roles before running for Congress. She is married to Matthew Manda and they have one child.

SourcesShow

Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

Supports pro-growth tax cuts and targeted tax relief for families and New Yorkers, and has voted for/endorsed Republican tax-cut legislation that reduces taxes and expands certain credits. Has advocated for reducing regulations and cutting wasteful spending as part of broader economic policy. Has also supported expanding the SALT deduction cap to provide relief to taxpayers in high-tax states.

Healthcare

Supports market-oriented reforms to lower costs and expand access (including allowing interstate insurance sales and tort reform), emphasizes strengthening rural hospitals and community health centers, and has opposed COVID-19 vaccine mandates for healthcare workers. Focuses on expanding provider capacity and targeted federal funding rather than large-scale public coverage expansions like Medicare for All.

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Immigration & Border

Elise Stefanik emphasizes stronger border security and enforcement, supporting measures such as restarting construction of the border wall, ending “catch and release,” increasing personnel and resources at ports of entry, and passage of the House Republican Secure the Border Act. She frames current federal policy as an ‘‘open border’’ crisis and prioritizes tighter controls at both the Southern and Northern borders.

Abortion & Reproductive Rights

Supports restrictions on abortion including a federal minimum of a 15-week ban with exceptions for rape, incest, and to protect the life of the mother; opposes taxpayer funding for elective abortions and has supported pro-life legislation and related votes.

Climate & Energy

Supports an all-of-the-above energy approach emphasizing expanded domestic fossil-fuel production, energy independence, and opposition to aggressive federal emissions regulations; promotes rolling back EPA and administration climate rules and prioritizes lowering energy costs. Positions accept market-driven or transitional measures rather than Green New Deal–style phaseouts of fossil fuels.

Public Safety & Guns

Supports broad Second Amendment protections and opposes new federal and state firearm restrictions. Sponsors and promotes legislation to block state-level gun limits, backs concealed-carry reciprocity and legal challenges to restrictive state laws, and opposes ATF rules she views as infringing on gun owners’ rights.

News

AINews Summary
Last updatedMar 12, 2026

Elise Stefanik is in the news after the House passed the SAVE America Act, which would tighten voter registration and ID requirements. The bill passed on partisan lines and now faces uncertainty in the Senate. Critics say the rules could create hurdles for people who have changed their names, while supporters argue it would strengthen election integrity.

stefanik.house.gov+25

Polls

New York Republican Governor nominee?
Polling Average
60%50%40%30%20%10%0%
50.9%
12.8%
8.4%
Elise Stefanik
E. Stefanik
Mike Lawler
M. Lawler
Bruce Blakeman
B. Blakeman
Date (Start - End)SpreadStefanikLawlerBlakeman
Polling Average
Stefanik+38.1
50.9%12.8%8.4%
Siena UniversityDec 8 - 12
Stefanik+31.0
48.0%17.0%
J.L. PartnersNov 9 - 10
Stefanik+69.0
74.0%5.0%
Siena CollegeJun 23 - 26
Stefanik+17.0
35.0%18.0%7.0%
co/efficientJun 18 - 20
Stefanik+56.0
64.0%8.0%6.0%
Siena CollegeMay 12 - 15
Stefanik+13.0
35.0%22.0%11.0%
co/efficientMay 1 - 2
Stefanik+47.0
56.0%9.0%8.0%
GrayhouseApr 22 - 24
Stefanik+37.0
44.0%7.0%5.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Fundraising

Latest report: Cycle 2026
Total raisedCash on hand
$15.5M
$11.6M
$7.7M
$3.9M
$0

2024

2026

Latest
Year
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate

Cycle 2024

$15.5M
$8.7M
$7.6M
$318.2K

Cycle 2026

$5.0M
$10.8M
$2.9M
$192.0K

Source: FEC

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

  • Endorsements