Prediction Edge
RepublicanIncumbent
Dan Sullivan

Overview

Current roleU.S. Senator

PartyRepublican

Political ideologyConservative Republican

GenderMale

LocationAlaska

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BackgroundAttorney

EducationHarvard University (B.A., Economics, 1987)

Notable personal detailsDaniel Scott Sullivan is a Republican U.S. Senator from Alaska, first sworn in on January 6, 2015. He previously served as Alaska Attorney General and as Commissioner of the Alaska Department of Natural Resources, and held senior national-security and economic roles in the George W. Bush administration, including U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Economic, Energy, and Business Affairs. He served for 30 years in the U.S. Marine Corps, retiring on February 1, 2024 as a Colonel in the Marine Corps Reserve. He earned a B.A. in Economics from Harvard University and a joint J.D./M.S. in Foreign Service from Georgetown University.

SourcesShow

Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

Supports tax cuts and lower tax rates for individuals and small businesses, opposes large tax increases, and has voted for major Republican tax legislation while advocating reduced federal spending and policies to spur private-sector growth. Emphasizes tax relief for working families and Alaska-specific tax protections and has opposed Democratic-led tax/spending bills that raise taxes or expand federal revenues.

Healthcare

Dan Sullivan opposes Medicare-for-All and has repeatedly voted to repeal or replace the Affordable Care Act while supporting targeted federal actions to help rural health care and protections for preexisting conditions. He emphasizes reducing federal mandates and taxes in the ACA, increasing state flexibility for Medicaid, and directing federal funds to local providers rather than one-size-fits-all federal programs.

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Immigration & Border

Supports stronger border security and enforcement measures while acknowledging legal immigration and limited compassionate solutions for certain migrants (e.g., DACA recipients). Advocates increased detention/processing capacity, funding for border infrastructure and personnel, restrictions on asylum eligibility for economic migrants, and reforms to immigration enforcement operations.

Abortion & Reproductive Rights

Dan Sullivan identifies as pro-life, supported the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision returning abortion regulation to the states, and has sponsored and supported federal measures restricting abortion (including a 20-week/pain-capable restriction and other pro-life legislative proposals).

Climate & Energy

Supports expanded development of Alaska’s fossil fuel resources and opposes policies framed as job‑killing climate regulations (including the Green New Deal). Emphasizes energy development for jobs, prosperity, and security while critiquing federal restrictions on Alaska oil and mineral leasing.

Public Safety & Guns

Dan Sullivan consistently emphasizes protecting Second Amendment rights while supporting targeted measures addressing mental health and school safety. He opposed the 2022 Bipartisan Safer Communities Act citing concerns about vague provisions and potential infringement on gun rights, and has repeatedly spoken against executive or administrative actions he views as limiting lawful gun ownership. Sullivan has supported school-safety funding but opposes broad new federal gun restrictions that he says could affect Alaska hunting and subsistence practices.

News

AINews Summary
Last updatedFeb 10, 2026

U.S. Sen. Dan Sullivan, a Republican incumbent in Alaska, is reported to have a significant fundraising advantage heading into the 2026 election cycle, with more than $5.8 million in his campaign account. The Alaska Senate race is described as pivotal for control of the chamber, as challengers begin to ramp up their campaigns.

sullivan.senate.gov+38

Polls

Alaska Senate winner? (Person)
Polling Average
60%50%40%30%20%10%0%
44.8%
47.8%
Dan Sullivan
D. Sullivan
Mary Peltola
M. Peltola
Sid Hill
S. Hill
Ann Diener
A. Diener
Date (Start - End)SpreadSullivanPeltolaHillDiener
Polling Average
Peltola+3.0
44.8%47.8%3.2%2.4%
Alaska Survey ResearchMay 14 - 17
Peltola+4.6
43.8%48.4%
Alaska Survey ResearchApr 16 - 19
Peltola+6.6
42.5%49.1%3.2%
Alaska Survey ResearchApr 16 - 19
Peltola+6.6
43.6%50.2%
Alaska Survey ResearchMar 19 - 22
Peltola+5.3
43.5%48.8%2.4%
Alaska Survey ResearchMar 19 - 22
Peltola+6.6
43.8%50.4%
Alaska Survey ResearchMar 19 - 22
Peltola+4.8
47.6%52.4%
Public Policy PollingJan 16 - 17
Peltola+2.0
47.0%49.0%
Alaska Survey ResearchJan 8 - 11
Peltola+1.6
46.4%48.0%
Data for ProgressOct 17 - 23
Peltola+1.0
45.0%46.0%
Alaska Survey ResearchOct 10 - 15
Peltola+1.8
45.9%47.7%
Alaska Survey ResearchJul 29 - Aug 1
Sullivan+4.2
46.7%42.5%
Data for ProgressJul 21 - 27
Sullivan+1.0
46.0%45.0%
Alaska Survey ResearchApr 21 - 25
Peltola+3.0
41.0%44.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Fundraising

Latest report: Cycle 2026
Total raisedCash on hand
$7.1M
$5.3M
$3.5M
$1.8M
$0

2022

2024

2026

Latest
Year
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate

Cycle 2022

$705.2K
$904.6K
$532.3K
$22.2K

Cycle 2024

$1.9M
$2.1M
$707.5K
$29.5K

Cycle 2026

$6.5M
$7.1M
$1.5M
$100.4K

Source: FEC

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

  • Endorsements