Prediction Edge

Overview

Current roleHistorian

PartyIndependent

Political ideologyGreen

GenderMale

LocationCalifornia

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BackgroundHistorian

EducationPh.D., University of Pennsylvania (2004)

Notable personal detailsRudolph “Butch” T. Ware III is an American historian and activist who serves as an associate professor in the Department of History at the University of California, Santa Barbara. He earned a Ph.D. from the University of Pennsylvania in 2004, with training in African history, African-American history, and Islamic intellectual history. Ware was the Green Party’s 2024 vice-presidential nominee and is a Green Party write-in candidate for Governor of California in 2026.

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Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

Supports steeply progressive state taxation and new taxes on wealth and vacant properties, closing commercial property tax loopholes (split-roll) and reducing regressive taxes while funding expanded public programs and public banking. Advocates large public spending programs for housing, healthcare (single-payer CalCare), living wages, and green job creation.

Healthcare

Supports a universal single-payer system (CalCare) guaranteeing comprehensive, free-at-point-of-service healthcare for every California resident with no premiums, copays, deductibles, or coinsurance. Seeks to implement CalCare as a statewide public program with broad benefits and patient choice of provider. Campaign materials frame healthcare as a human right and prioritize implementing universal coverage early in the administration.

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Immigration & Border

Supports ending California’s cooperation with ICE, ending transfers of state prisoners into ICE custody, and implementing policies to protect immigrant communities; favors providing free or affordable health care to all people living in the state, including undocumented immigrants. Emphasizes reducing enforcement cooperation and prioritizing inclusion and justice for immigrant communities.

Abortion & Reproductive Rights

The candidate supports reproductive rights and access to abortion while indicating there should be some limits and regulations (he referenced a 16-week threshold in a past interview). He affirms support for safe, legal, and accessible abortion and frames restrictions as disproportionately harmful, while acknowledging common-sense limits.

Climate & Energy

Supports aggressive public ownership and rapid decarbonization measures including a statewide publicly-owned energy grid, banning new oil/gas drilling and fracking, capping inactive wells, investing in statewide renewable electric transit, and decommissioning nuclear facilities.

Public Safety & Guns

Supports enforcement of existing gun laws and policies that demilitarize police and reform the carceral system while prioritizing public-safety and restorative-justice approaches. Platform emphasizes policing reforms and upholding current firearm regulations rather than expanding or eliminating gun rights in absolute terms.

News

AINews Summary
Last updatedMar 14, 2026

Butch Ware is in the news as one of the Democratic candidates in California’s crowded 2026 governor’s race, where party leaders are warning that a split Democratic vote could let two Republicans advance under the state’s top-two primary system. State Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks publicly urged lower-polling Democrats to reconsider their campaigns ahead of the filing deadline, but the push to narrow the field was largely ignored and most candidates stayed in. The continued crowding is fueling concern about a Republican advantage in early modeling and simulations of the primary outcome.

history.ucsb.edu+36

Polls

California governor primary: 3rd place
Polling Average
20%15%10%5%0%
14.6%
13.8%
13.3%
9.8%
7.3%
6.9%
5.5%
Butch Ware
B. Ware
Katie Porter
K. Porter
Steve Hilton
S. Hilton
Eric Swalwell
E. Swalwell
Chad Bianco
C. Bianco
Tom Steyer
T. Steyer
Alex Padilla
A. Padilla
Xavier Becerra
X. Becerra
Antonio Villaraigosa
A. Villaraigosa
Matt Mahan
M. Mahan
Date (Start - End)SpreadWarePorterHiltonSwalwellBiancoSteyerPadillaBecerraVillaraigosaMahan
Polling Average
Porter+13.6
1.0%14.6%13.8%13.3%9.8%7.3%6.9%5.5%4.5%4.0%
Public Policy Institute of CaliforniaFeb 3 - 11
Hilton+12.0
2.0%13.0%14.0%11.0%12.0%10.0%5.0%5.0%3.0%
EMC ResearchJan 29 - Feb 4
Bianco+19.0
2.0%12.0%17.0%18.0%21.0%9.0%6.0%3.0%5.0%
Public Policy Institute of CaliforniaNov 13 - 19
Porter+20.0
1.0%21.0%14.0%10.0%14.0%8.0%
EMC ResearchOct 22 - 26
Hilton+18.0
2.0%16.0%20.0%11.0%14.0%3.0%9.0%5.0%
Emerson CollegeSep 15 - 16
Porter+15.1
0.4%15.5%9.8%7.5%6.9%3.4%3.9%
Emerson CollegeSep 15 - 16
Porter+15.2
0.6%15.8%9.9%7.9%4.8%3.8%
Emerson CollegeAug 4 - 5
Porter+17.0
0.6%17.6%11.8%7.1%2.7%4.6%
Emerson CollegeApr 12 - 14
Porter+12.1
0.3%12.4%4.3%3.0%4.9%
Emerson CollegeApr 12 - 14
Porter+7.6
0.1%7.7%4.2%1.8%1.9%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

  • Endorsements
  • Fundraising