University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies
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Who will win the CA-01 special election?
$27.8K
JUN 3, 2026
Candidate standings
Live market pricing for the leading candidates in this election.
Overview
Current roleFormer State Senator
PartyRepublican
Political ideologyConservative Republican
Age60 years old (Sep 20, 1965)
GenderMale
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LocationCalifornia
BackgroundPolitician
Notable personal detailsBrian Dwain Dahle is an American politician and farmer who served on the Lassen County Board of Supervisors (1997–2012), in the California State Assembly representing the 1st district (2012–2019), and in the California State Senate representing the 1st district (2019–2024). He also served as Assembly Minority Leader (2017–2018). He was the Republican nominee for governor of California in 2022 and has run for lieutenant governor in 2026.
SourcesShowHide
en.wikipedia.orgarchive.senate.ca.govjoincalifornia.combriandahle.comelectionstats.sonomacounty.ca.govhistorica.fandom.comwikidata.orginkl.comcommons.wikimedia.orgfrontpage.ballotpedia.orglrl.mn.govsierrasun.comlatimes.comnapacounty.govelections.cdn.sos.ca.govsenate.ca.govtorrance.granicus.comclerk.assembly.ca.govarxiv.orglassennews.comkpbs.orgjustfacts.votesmart.orgreddingtoday.comsandiegouniontribune.comreproductivefreedomforall.organewscafe.comcalmatters.orgkcra.comijpr.orgontheissues.orgenvirovoters.orgscorecard.ecovote.orgdeveloper.ballotpedia.orgcdn.ballotpedia.orgvoterguide.ballotpedia.orgballotready.orgfec.gov
Positions
LiberalConservative
Economy & Taxes
Brian Dahle favors reducing taxes and lowering energy costs, including calling for a suspension of the state gas tax and opposing measures he describes as enabling higher local taxation. He supports actions to lower utility bills and criticizes state regulations and tax policies that he says increase costs for Californians.
Healthcare
Brian Dahle has a record of opposing several state bills that expand health insurance coverage and has emphasized protecting Medi‑Cal reimbursements for rural and critical access providers while addressing surprise out‑of‑network medical bills. His campaign materials focus on cost, limiting government overreach, and targeted protections for rural health providers rather than proposing broad public‑coverage expansions. Voting records show he voted against multiple recent bills that would expand coverage or require broader insurer mandates.
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Immigration & Border
Supports streamlining the path to U.S. citizenship while not signalling an enforcement-first or restrictionist immigration agenda. Public statements during his 2022 gubernatorial campaign include support for reforms to simplify legal pathways to citizenship.
Abortion & Reproductive Rights
Opposes abortion and describes himself as pro‑life; has voted against legislation intended to expand abortion access and received very low grades from reproductive-rights advocacy groups. He has characterized his position as fully pro‑life and expressed opposition to abortion protections beyond limited circumstances.
Climate & Energy
Supports increased in-state oil production and energy independence, prioritizes forest management and wildfire mitigation as environmental actions, and criticizes broad, aggressive climate mandates as impractical without detailed plans. Says he is not a climate denier but favors continuing fossil fuel production during a transition to cleaner options and opposes measures he views as raising energy costs or offshoring emissions. Advocates processing oil permits faster, expanding transmission, and limiting regulatory barriers (e.g., CEQA) that he says impede energy development.
Public Safety & Guns
Brian Dahle has a record of opposing recent California gun-control measures and has received a high rating from the NRA, indicating support for gun rights and opposition to many new firearm restrictions. His legislative votes include multiple Nays on bills that expanded gun regulations, taxes on firearms/ammunition, and restrictions on ghost guns.
Polls
Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne
New updates coming soon
We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.
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