Prediction Edge
Republican
Toby Doeden

Overview

Current roleBusinessman

PartyRepublican

Political ideologyConservative Republican

GenderMale

LocationSouth Dakota

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BackgroundBusinessman

Notable personal detailsToby Doeden is an Aberdeen, South Dakota businessman and Republican candidate for governor in the June 2, 2026 primary election. He founded the political action committee Dakota First Action and has been active in conservative advocacy in South Dakota. Doeden’s campaign describes him as a self-made business owner and family man; his campaign site lists his wife as Elizabeth and says they have four children.

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Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

Advocates eliminating property taxes statewide, reducing the size of state government and spending, and preserving/codifying South Dakota sales-tax measures while proposing alternative consumption-based revenue sources to replace property tax revenue.

Immigration & Border

Supports aggressive enforcement measures against undocumented immigrants, including accelerating arrests and deportations; emphasizes combating illegal immigration and border security.

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Climate & Energy

The candidate emphasizes free‑market energy and economic policy, opposes large state subsidies or corporate welfare for energy projects, and has supported political efforts skeptical of major carbon‑capture pipeline projects. Policy statements focus on limiting government incentives and promoting a business climate without special favors rather than endorsing aggressive emissions regulations or expansive clean‑energy mandates.

Public Safety & Guns

The candidate expresses strong support for the Second Amendment and says he will stand up for the right to bear arms. He emphasizes prioritizing public safety by supporting law enforcement and upholding law and order, without proposing new gun-restrictive measures on his issues pages.

Polls

South Dakota Republican Governor nominee?
Polling Average
40%30%20%10%0%
18.4%
27.4%
24.7%
13.1%
Toby Doeden
T. Doeden
Dusty Johnson
D. Johnson
Larry Rhoden
L. Rhoden
J. Hansen
Date (Start - End)SpreadDoedenJohnsonRhodenHansen
Polling Average
Johnson+9.0
18.4%27.4%24.7%13.1%
The Public Sentiment InstituteMay 26 - 27
Rhoden+9.0
23.6%26.4%32.6%14.1%
The Public Sentiment InstituteMay 26 - 27
Rhoden+8.4
24.0%27.2%32.4%13.2%
Meeting Street InsightsMay 18 - 20
Rhoden+1.0
22.0%19.0%23.0%21.0%
Emerson CollegeMay 18 - 19
Doeden+3.0
26.3%23.3%19.0%16.0%
Mason-Dixon Polling & StrategyApr 7 - 11
Johnson+16.6
17.4%34.0%17.0%17.8%
Emerson CollegeMar 7 - 9
Johnson+10.5
17.6%28.1%16.6%13.6%
Public Opinion StrategiesMar 2 - 5
Johnson+17.0
16.0%33.0%28.0%10.0%
Mason-Dixon Polling & StrategyOct 16 - 20
Johnson+13.0
15.0%28.0%27.0%10.0%
Mason-Dixon Polling & StrategyApr 9 - 11
Johnson+24.0
4.0%28.0%27.0%2.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

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