Prediction Edge
Republican
John Fleming

John Fleming

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Overview

Current roleFormer U.S. Representative

PartyRepublican

Political ideologyTrump-aligned Republican

Age74 years old (Jul 5, 1951)

GenderMale

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LocationLouisiana

BackgroundPolitician

EducationB.S., University of Mississippi (1973)

Notable personal detailsJohn Calvin Fleming Jr. is a Louisiana politician, physician, and former U.S. Navy officer who has served as Louisiana State Treasurer since January 2024. He previously represented Louisiana's 4th Congressional District in the U.S. House of Representatives from 2009 to 2017. His background includes medical training at the University of Mississippi and service in the U.S. Navy from 1976 to 1982.

SourcesShow
history.house.govtreasury.la.govfec.goven.wikipedia.orgwikidata.orgaxios.comtheweek.comgovsalaries.comknoe.comapnews.comkplctv.comksla.comwafb.comredriverradio.orgaudacy.comyahoo.comcongress.govbeckershospitalreview.comfiercehealthcare.comthehayride.combreitbart.comstylemagazine.comncronline.orgontheissues.orgklfy.comnews.yahoo.comkalb.comflemingsenatecampaign.comlegistorm.comlouisianavoice.comjustfacts.votesmart.orgstatic.votesmart.orgwashingtonpost.comgovinfo.govballotready.orgnass.orgncsl.orgkennedy.senate.govtransition.fec.govcommons.wikimedia.orgupload.wikimedia.orgdocquery.fec.gov

Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

Supports eliminating personal income tax in Louisiana, opposes federal tax credits/subsidies such as 45Q for carbon capture, and emphasizes cutting government spending and limiting taxpayer-funded programs. Advocates reducing taxes and rolling back tax incentives he views as cronyism.

Healthcare

Supports repeal of the Affordable Care Act and legislative alternatives that would replace ACA provisions; has described the ACA as not fixable and opposed expansions of government-run healthcare. Advocates market-oriented reforms and policies reducing regulatory burdens on providers, including promoting health IT interoperability and pay-for-value approaches.

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Immigration & Border

Supports stronger border security and enforcement, opposes executive amnesty and sanctuary-city policies, and has called for accountability for Department of Homeland Security leadership over perceived failures at the southern border. Has backed legislation to withhold federal funds from sanctuary jurisdictions and criticized policies that would regularize large numbers of undocumented immigrants.

Abortion & Reproductive Rights

The candidate opposes abortion and has supported federal restrictions and conscience protections for health-care providers; he has cosponsored legislation declaring life begins at fertilization and voted to prohibit federal funding for abortion and Planned Parenthood.

Climate & Energy

Opposes carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) projects and federal tax credits that support them (45Q), arguing they are dangerous, a misuse of taxpayer money, and can create eminent domain issues for landowners. Positions prioritize property rights and reduced federal subsidies for CCS while criticizing what he describes as cronyism in climate-related subsidies.

Public Safety & Guns

Supports strong Second Amendment protections and has a long record of sponsoring and passing pro-gun-rights legislation while opposing additional federal gun restrictions. Holds high ratings from major gun-rights groups and emphasizes defending lawful gun owners' rights.

News

AINews Summary
Last updatedMar 14, 2026

John Fleming has entered Louisiana’s 2026 Republican U.S. Senate primary and has qualified for the May 16 contest, setting up a competitive race against incumbent Bill Cassidy and Rep. Julia Letlow. He is campaigning aggressively and casting both Cassidy and Letlow as too liberal, while the field trades attack ads over who is the most conservative. The broader policy backdrop includes debate over expiring enhanced ACA premium credits, an issue expected to affect costs and could surface in the campaign.

history.house.gov+41
Articles
BRBaton Rouge Advocate4 months ago

Cassidy, Letlow, Fleming make Louisiana Senate a slugfest

Neutral
BRBaton Rouge Advocate4 months ago

Qualifying for Louisiana elections underway. See who’s in.

Neutral
BRBaton Rouge Advocate4 months ago

State Sen. Gary Carter says no to challenging Bill Cassidy

Neutral
BRBaton Rouge Advocate3 months ago

First reaction of those paying higher health premiums

Neutral

Polls

Polling Average
30%20%10%0%
25.2%
27.2%
27.1%
5.5%
John Fleming
J. Fleming
Julia Letlow
J. Letlow
Bill Cassidy
B. Cassidy
Blake Miguez
B. Miguez
Eric Skrmetta
E. Skrmetta
Kathy Seiden
K. Seiden
Date (Start - End)SpreadFlemingLetlowCassidyMiguezSkrmettaSeiden
Polling Average
Letlow+2.0
25.2%27.2%27.1%5.5%2.6%0.0%
Quantus InsightsMay 6 - 7
Letlow+12.0
29.6%41.6%19.6%–––
Fabrizio, Lee & AssociatesMay 4 - 5
Letlow+11.0
21.0%32.0%26.0%–––
BDPCApr 28 - 30
Letlow+11.3
21.2%32.5%20.5%–––
Emerson CollegeApr 24 - 26
Fleming+1.4
28.3%26.9%21.1%–––
American Pulse Research & PollingMar 20 - 24
Letlow+6.0
24.5%30.5%20.5%–––
Harris, DeVille & AssociatesMar 13 - 19
Cassidy+24.0
21.0%34.0%45.0%–––
BDPCMar 16 - 17
Letlow+5.5
23.5%29.0%19.7%–––
Fabrizio, Lee & AssociatesMar 11 - 12
Letlow+8.0
19.0%27.0%26.0%–––
Public Opinion StrategiesMar 7 - 10
Cassidy+14.0
21.0%24.0%35.0%–––
Cor StrategiesFeb 20 - 24
Cassidy+13.0
17.0%15.0%30.0%–––
Quantus InsightsFeb 23 - 24
Fleming+9.6
34.2%24.6%19.8%–––
BDPCFeb 21 - 23
Cassidy+6.7
20.8%21.3%27.5%–––
JMC AnalyticsFeb 14 - 16
Fleming+1.0
26.0%25.0%22.0%–––
JMC AnalyticsFeb 14 - 16
Fleming+9.0
40.0%31.0%––––
JMC AnalyticsFeb 14 - 16
Fleming+20.0
48.0%–28.0%–––
Public Opinion StrategiesJan 20 - 22
Cassidy+16.0
16.0%21.0%32.0%9.0%1.0%0.0%
BDPCJan 20 - 22
Letlow+13.0
14.0%27.0%21.0%5.0%––
JMC AnalyticsJan 12 - 14
Fleming+1.0
23.0%–22.0%–––
Cor StrategiesNov 17 - 20
Cassidy+7.0
22.0%–29.0%–––
JMC AnalyticsOct 15 - 17
Fleming+11.0
40.0%–29.0%–––
JMC AnalyticsOct 15 - 17
Fleming+2.0
25.0%–23.0%–––
Ragnar Research PartnersApr 14 - 16
Cassidy+27.0
18.0%–45.0%–––
Trafalgar GroupMar 6 - 10
Cassidy+6.7
16.8%19.7%23.5%4.1%––
Trafalgar GroupMar 6 - 10
Cassidy+3.5
24.6%–28.1%3.3%––
Trafalgar GroupMar 6 - 10
Cassidy+3.8
24.5%–28.3%–––
JMC AnalyticsFeb 24 - 26
Fleming+2.0
29.0%–27.0%6.0%2.0%–
JMC AnalyticsFeb 24 - 26
Fleming+13.0
40.0%–27.0%–––
JMC AnalyticsDec 24 - 26
Fleming+13.0
40.0%–27.0%–––
JMC AnalyticsDec 24 - 26
Fleming+2.0
29.0%–27.0%–––
Trafalgar GroupAug 12 - 14
Cassidy+20.1
15.9%–36.0%–3.9%–
Trafalgar GroupAug 12 - 14
Cassidy+15.1
11.8%–26.9%–2.2%–
Trafalgar GroupAug 12 - 14
Fleming+18.1
22.0%–––3.9%–

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Fundraising

Latest report: Cycle 2026
Total raisedCash on hand
$11.3M
$8.4M
$5.6M
$2.8M
$0

2022

2024

2026

Latest
Year
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate

Cycle 2022

$0.00
$57.77
$15.00
$0.63

Cycle 2024

$36.3K
$18.9K
$17.4K
$726.93

Cycle 2026

$11.3M
$1.4M
$9.9M
$617.5K

Source: FEC

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

  • Endorsements