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AUG 12, 2026Primary Election
Party selects its nominee.
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Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.
source: Kalshi
Scott’s Republican gubernatorial nomination price rebounded to 69% after trading as low as 60% intraday, and fresh reporting says he filed to run for reelection on May 28. That combination suggests traders are re-pricing his hold on the GOP line ahead of the August 11 primary.
John Rodgers's odds reached 20%, topping the previous high of 9% in this Vermont Republican governor nomination race.
Phil Scott’s Republican nomination price for Vermont governor dropped from 0.958 a day ago to 0.72 over the last hour, with volume picking up. That is a sizable repricing in a thin primary market and may signal traders are rethinking his path to the GOP line despite recent coverage treating him as the presumptive frontrunner.
Trump’s declining approval is being described as a drag on Republican prospects in blue states. The article says GOP candidates are having trouble appealing to both Trump supporters and independent voters. No Vermont-specific nomination development is reported. This could slightly weaken Republican nominee prospects in Vermont if the same blue-state headwinds apply. The effect is indirect and uncertain because no Vermont-specific candidate news is reported.
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We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.
