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JUL 22, 2026Primary Election
Party selects its nominee.
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Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.
source: Kalshi
Petersen’s odds fell from 69% to 48% over the last day, even as he remains the market leader. That’s trader-relevant because it weakens the front-runner’s margin in a race that already has active media attention around the 2026 Arizona AG contest.
The biggest development is the FBI subpoena of Arizona 2020 election records, which Warren Petersen complied with. Trump praised the move, while Democratic officials criticized it. The story raises Petersen’s profile, but it is not clear that it changes the nomination contest. The news could give Petersen more attention, but it does not clearly change the nomination race. Any market impact looks limited and mostly indirect.
Political donors are shattering attorney general fundraising records nationwide as the top cop elections draw more attention in 2026.
The president responds to a controversial federal request for Arizona Senate audit records tied to the 2020 election.
Arizona Senate President Warren Petersen revealed that federal authorities issued him a subpoena for records related to the 2020 election.
New updates coming soon
We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.
